财经频道

主页 > 财经 > 猪市行情 > 行情点评 > 生猪价格将走高

生猪价格将走高

作者:Pork Commentary来源:福建一春农业发展有限公司时间:2015-04-21 08:39点击:

  We expect from now into summer to see a relentless increase in Lean hog prices. Easter has passed and the subsequent short hog-marketing week is over. Packers will have full week activities until memorial weekend. Short weeks are never farmer’s price friends.

  我们预计,从现在到夏天将出现瘦肉猪价格持续上涨。复活节已经过去,伴随的生猪上市的非完整工作周已经结束。屠宰厂在阵亡将士纪念日周末之前仍将有完整工作周的活动。非完整工作周一直都对农民的价格不友好。

  A year ago, US carcass weights were 219.28 lbs. This year same time 214.64 lbs. About a 4.5 lb. carcass decline or approximately 6 lbs. liveweight.

  一年前,美国的胴体重量是219.28磅。今年同一时间为214.64磅。胴体下降约4.5磅,即活重下降约6磅。

  Farmer Arithmetic – 6 lbs. at 2 lbs. per day gone is equivalent to one million head shift ahead in marketings. Year to date the US has marketed 1.5 million more hogs there a year ago. Could one million of the increase be because of the lower marketing weights? Who knows if this is correct arithmetic but without a doubt the lower weight has pulled a large number of hogs ahead.

  简单算一下,每天增重2磅的话,活体重减少6磅相当于每天出栏头数减少100万头。今年到目前为止,美国已经比去年多出栏150万头的猪。增加的100万头是不是因为出栏体重下降?谁知道如果这个算法正确,毫无疑问低体重将导致生猪数量增加。

  At some point the market will be rewarded from the lower weights this year from both lower hog numbers being marketed and lower pork tonnage from smaller carcasses. Last summer was cooler than normal and hog weights did not decline seasonally as normal. A normal hot summer will pull pork tonnage down to even lower levels. Less pork, higher prices.

  在某个时间点,市场将受益于出栏生猪数减少带来的今年重量下降以及屠宰重降低所带来的猪肉重量减少。去年夏天是比正常温度更低,生猪体重没有如往常一样出现季节性下滑。正常情况下,炎热的夏天会使猪肉产量降至更低的水平。猪肉减少,价格上涨。

  Some Observations

  一些观察

  ·Olymel Packer strike in Quebec was settled last week. The strike had put about 35,000 extra hogs into the distribution chain looking for packing plants. As significant number came to the United States. This had put pressure on lean hog prices as packers had more supply especially over a holiday weekend with plant closures. The strike being settled means discounted hogs looking for a home will not continue hurting the market.

  ·魁北克省的Olymel屠宰厂罢工上周已经和解。罢工已使额外的大约35,000头生猪到分销链中寻找屠宰厂。大量生猪到了美国。由于屠宰厂供应量增加,特别是节日周末的工厂关闭带来的影响,瘦肉猪价格受到了压力。罢工的和解意味着正在寻找买家的打折猪将不会继续影响到市场。

  ·Hopefully not acting as a one trick pony, we continue to look at Beef cut-outs versus Pork cut-outs.

  Beef $2.56/lb. Pork 65.87¢/lb.

  Pork is 25% the price of Beef. No way that this will continue. Pork Prices will move towards beef relentlessly over the next three months.

  ·我们希望不是只会“一招鲜”,继续对比牛肉切块与猪肉切块。

  牛肉 2.56 美元/磅。猪肉 65.87美分/磅。

  猪肉价格是牛肉的25%。没有办法,这将继续。猪肉价格在接下来的三个月中将不断接近牛肉价格。

  ·At Genesus last week we had visitors from Europe. Market there is about breakeven. Little thought of expansion. Seems to be further erosion of Dutch and Danish production as heavily financially leveraged farmers not able to pay bills. Europeans looking for Genetics that are easy to manage but still high producing. Too many farms with 15% sow mortality, as Genetics raised on straw do not have the ability to withstand modern hog production. End result – More Genesus Genetics going to Europe.

  ·上个星期,我们加裕接待了来自欧洲的客人。那里的市场处于保本。扩张的想法不多。由于高财务杠杆的农民无法支付账单,荷兰和丹麦的生产可能会受到进一步影响。欧洲人正在寻找容易管理但仍然高产的种猪品种。很多农场的死亡率达15%,种猪在垫草上饲养,无法经受现代养猪生产的要求。最终结果是,更多加裕种猪去往欧洲。

  ·The 7 million sows that have been eliminated in China the last 16 months might now be beginning to jump that market.  End of February to end of March, China’s live price went from 11.22 rmb to 12.46 rmb or 84.78¢ USD liveweight/lb. to 91.1¢ USD liveweight/lb. The price difference between the current USD liveweight price of 43¢/lb. is about $125 per head.

  ·中国在过去16个月中淘汰了700万头母猪,现在开始减少出栏。2月底到3月底,中国的活猪价格去从11.22元上涨至12.46元人民币,即从84.78美分/磅活重上涨至91.1美分/磅活重。这与当前的美元活重价格达到43美分/磅的价差,即每头猪125美元左右。

  We believe with the pacific pork worker strike settled and the ability to flow pork to China getting more plausible, there are more than enough capitalists in China who will figure out how to buy Pork in America and bring to China for a profit. Smithfield Foods – Chinese owned is in driver seat to cash in. We believe the Chinese purchasers of Smithfield always have seen Pork to China as a major part of their end game.

  我们相信随着太平洋猪肉工人罢工问题的和解以及猪肉流向中国的真实性增强,会有更多的中国资本家找出如果在美国购买猪肉并运回中国赚取利润的方法。中国拥有的史密斯菲尔德食品公司正坐在驾驶座上数钱。我们相信,史密斯菲尔德的中国买家已经能算到他们主要的最终目的就是让猪肉运往中国。

  At some point China will be down 1.5 million market hogs per week from the liquidation. Exporting 100,000 equivalent hogs from America is a major market mover for US prices. 100,000 hogs a week is less than 1% of Chinese current production. We continue to believe it is not if, but when China pork needs Turbo Charge US prices.

  因为减栏的原因,中国将在某个时间点每周减少150万头出栏猪。从美国出口相当于10万头生猪的商品将成为美国价格的主要驱动。每周100,000头猪还不到中国目前产量的1%。我们仍然相信,到时中国猪肉会美国的价格加倍。

  Summary

  总结

  We see relentless US price increases with lean hogs reaching 2013 summer levels of 95¢ lean.

  我们看到美国的瘦肉猪价格不断上涨,达到2013年夏季的95美分的水平。

   

责任编辑:宋美丽  

热门讨论

产品直通车

百度推广