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6月1日美国农业部生猪报告

作者:陈睿来源:福建一春农业发展有限公司时间:2015-07-03 11:03点击:

  USDA June 1st Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report

  6月1日美国农业部生猪报告

  Last Friday the USDA released the June 1st Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report.

  上周五,美国农业部发布了6月1日的季度生猪报告。

                               Hogs and Pigs (1,000 head)

                                         猪头数(1,000头) 


  At first glance the June 1 Hogs and Pigs Report is bearish. 4 plus million market hogs in inventory is a daunting number compared to last year. On a 25 week production cycle an average 180,000 more market hogs a week. The current hog cash market is a disappointment. Prices are significantly lower than last year at 48₵ lean a pound lower or about $100 per head. That is a huge decrease.

  6月1日的生猪报告的初步印象并不乐观。与去年相比增加的400多万头商品猪存栏是一个惊人的数字。按25周的生产周期,平均每周多18万头以上的商品猪。当前的生猪现货市场令人失望。每磅瘦肉的价格明显比去年低48美分,即每头100美元。下降幅度巨大。

  Last year we projected that PED had increased market hogs by $30 – $40 per head. We were wrong. Again, looking at current prices it was closer to $100 per head. PED was the most profitable single event in our generation. The in-elastic supply – demand equation is very real in the hog industry.

  去年我们预测猪流行性腹泻将使每头商品猪价格上涨30-40美元。我们错了。再看一下目前的价格,每头接近100美元。猪流行性腹泻是这一代养猪人最赚钱的一件事。缺乏弹性的供求平衡在养猪业非常真实。

  Are there any positives?

  有没有正面的消息?

  It surprised us that the US breeding herd decreased from March 1st (5,982) to June 1st (5,926). The drop of 56,000 sows was contrary to the belief the US sow herd was increasing.

  让我们惊讶的是,3月1日(598.2万头)到6月1日(592.6万头)的美国种猪群存栏出现下降。56,000头母猪的下降与美国母猪群正在增加的观点形成反差。

  The US sow herd on June 1st is up only 40,000 sows from 2 years ago. At this point we see the sow herd numbers will not lead to huge production in 2017.

  6月1日的美国母猪群只比2年前增加了4万头母猪。目前我们认为母猪群数量将不会在2017年带来巨大的产量。

  Market Hog Inventory is up 9% from a year ago, but up only 3% from two years ago. 3% is not a huge number. 2013 we had summer prices in the mid 90’s.

  商品猪存栏比一年前上升了9%,但只比2年前提高了3%。3%不是一个很大的数字。我们在2013年夏季的价格达到95美分左右。

  Pig Crop – March – May – This year was 2% higher than 2013 (about 600,000 higher). That’s 40–50,000 more hogs per week this fall. We do not see how an increase at this level will pressure packer space. We reiterate we do not see June 1 breeding inventory which is beginning to set up 2017 production at a level to pressure packer space beyond reasonableness.

  今年3月至5月的生猪产量比2013年高出2%(高出60万头左右)。今年秋季多出4-5万头猪。我们看不出这种增长怎么会给屠宰空间带来压力。我们重申,开始影响2017年产量的6月1日种猪存栏处在这种水平,我们看不出这将影响超出合理水平的屠宰空间。

  Summary

  总结

  Definitely more pigs. Compare inventory to 2014 daunting numbers. Compare to 2013 similar numbers. The real question is why are hogs so much lower today than in 2013 when market numbers were much the same? We can’t explain the price difference of 2015 to 2013 of $50 per head, with a 70,000 hog a week supply difference.

  猪的头数绝对增加了。与2014年的存栏相比,这是惊人的数量。和2013年相比,数量类似。真正的问题是,在出栏数量非常相似的情况下,为什么目前的猪价会远低于2013 年?我们不能解释,在每周供应量相差7万头猪的情况下,2015年与2013年每头猪50美元的差价。

责任编辑:宋美丽  

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