财经频道

主页 > 财经 > 国内新闻 > 美国作物生产及生猪市场

美国作物生产及生猪市场

作者:陈睿来源:福建一春农业发展有限公司时间:2015-08-24 08:11点击:


  Road Trip Starts

  启程出发

  As we write this week’s commentary, we are flying over the mid-Atlantic. We are heading to Great Britain, Netherlands, Germany, Lithuania, Russia, and Spain over the next three weeks – we will report our observations on swine activities in each of these countries.

  当我们写下本周的评论时,我们正在飞越大西洋。我们在接下来的三周内正前往英国、 荷兰、 德国、 立陶宛、 俄罗斯和西班牙,我们将报告我们对这些国家养猪业的观察。

  US Crop Production

  美国作物生产

  Last week the USDA released their crop production projections. Corn, soybeans, sorghum and grain all came in at projection levels higher than expected. The corn crop of 13.686 million bushels and soybeans at 3.916 million bushels all but assures feed prices trading in current ranges for the next several months. September corn has now decreased 80¢ a bushel on July 13 ($4.42) to $3.64 a bushel last Friday. The fear of too much rain making the corn crop yield lower has dissipated. When I was a child, my Father always said, “Rain makes grain”. It appears the market sometimes forgets some realities. The USDA projects national corn yields of 168.8 bushels per acre. Excellent yields!

  上周,美国农业部发布他们的作物产量预测。所预测的玉米、 大豆、 高粱、 谷物水平都高于预期。1368.6万蒲式耳的玉米产量和391.6万蒲式耳的大豆产量基本确保了饲料交易价格将在未来几个月保持在当前的水平。9月的玉米期货已经从7月13日的每蒲式耳4.42美元跌至上周五的每蒲式耳3.64美元,下跌了80美分。雨水过多会影响玉米产量的忧虑已经消除。在我小的时候,我爸爸总是说,“雨水带来收成”。看来,市场有时会忘记一些现实。美国农业部预测全国玉米产量为每英亩168.8蒲式耳。极高的收益!

  Other Thoughts 

  其他的想法 

  Oil is $43 per barrel – used to be over $100. Low oil does not help ethanol demand or corn prices.

  石油价格为43美元/桶,曾经超过了100美元。低油价对乙醇需求或玉米价格没有帮助。

  The US dollar index about 20% higher than a year ago is not helping US corn exports.

  美元指数比一年前高出20%左右,无助于美国玉米的出口。

  If crop is what USDA says, there will be lots of feed in 2015 – 2016 and prices should stay around where we are.

  如果产量如美国农业部所述,2015~2016年将有大量的饲料,价格将保持在我们现有的水平。

  Hog Market

  生猪市场

  USDA pork cut – outs last week were $89.96 per pound and with over 2.2 million hogs marketed, a very strong price considering the volume of pork.

  上周美国农业部的猪肉切块价格为89.96美分/磅,出栏生猪超过220万头。考虑到猪肉的量,这个价格很好。

  US National 53 – 54% market hogs were $77.67 last week. The spread between pork cut outs $89.96 compared to markets at 77.67 or 12₵ a pound gives us an indication packers are making good money.

  上周,美国全国53-54%商品猪的价格为77.67美元。89.96美分的猪肉切块与77.67美分的商品猪之间有12美分的差价,这告诉我们屠宰厂还有很好的利润。

  A year ago, US carcass weights were at 215 pounds, currently they are about 209 pounds. The 6-pound carcass spread or about 8 pounds liveweight indicates to us marketings are significantly more current than last year. The lighter carcasses 2.2 million head times and 6 pound means less pork and is supporting prices.

  去年,美国的胴体重为215磅,现在他们是209磅。6磅的胴体重差异,即8磅的活重差异,表明当前的出栏明显高于去年。220万头更轻的胴体乘以6磅意味着更少的猪肉并支撑了价格。

  Current US Cash early weans of $21.06 will not be stimulating sow herd expansion. Indeed it is probably leading to some liquidation.

  当前21.06美元的美国早期断奶猪现货价格并不能刺激母猪群扩张。事实上,这可能会导致某些去产能化。

  China last week released their June inventory report. The June live hog inventory showed a total of 384.61 million head down 10% year on year. The sow inventory was 38.99 million head, down year on year by 14.8%. The Chinese sow herd has declined for 22 consecutive months. China’s sow inventory in May was 39.26 million, in June 38.95 the decline was another 300,000 sows. The huge decline due to lack of profit is unprecedented, over the last 22 months a decline of 11.6 million sows.

  上周,中国发布了他们6月份的存栏报告。6月的活猪存栏总计为38461万头,同比下降了10%。母猪存栏为3899万头,同比下降了14.8%。中国的母猪存栏连续22个月下降。5月的中国母猪存栏为3926万头,6月为3895万头,这又减少了300,000万头母猪。由于缺少利润导致的此次大量减栏是前所未有的,过去12个月减少了1160万头母猪。

  The Market Hog Inventory prior to the liquidation beginning 2 years ago was 444.37 million head. In June it was 384.61 a 60 million head decline. Our arithmetic says that’s down 2 million head a week for market. It is going to go higher as the sow herd liquidation over the last six months has not influenced the market inventory fully. Hog price China mid-April was 85¢ per pound US, last week $1.28 per pound.

  这场2年前开始的减栏之前的生猪存栏为44437万头。6月份的存栏为38461万头,减少了6000万头。我们的计算是,每周出栏减少了200万头。由于过去6个月的母猪存栏下降还没有完全影响到生猪存栏,这个数字还将变大。中国4月中的生猪价格为85美分/磅,上周为1.28美元/磅。

  Market Attitude

  市场态度

  Last year we has the bullish market effect of PED. Front-page news outside the farm world. The perception of pork shortage helped push hog prices higher than they should have gotten to. They were real prices and most everyone had their best year for profit ever!

  去年我们看好猪流行性腹泻的市场影响。这是猪场世界以外的头版新闻。猪肉短缺的看法有助于将生猪价格推高,并超过原有的水平。这些是真实的价格,这是大部分人利润最好的一年。

  This year the spectre of expansion, lack of shackle space, and pork glut perception have had the opposite effect. The news that has been focused on is negative. That’s why China can be so important. The bullish effect of China needing a big supply of pork will not only pull hog prices due to hog needs but just as importantly the bullish effect to attitude will give prices a boost. China is and will be stepping into the market. China is the bullish reality and the story we need.

  这一年扩张的恶魔、屠宰吊链空间不足以及猪肉供过于求的观点都起到了负面影响。这个新闻关注的都是负面的。这就是为什么中国会如此重要。中国需要大量猪肉供应的乐观影响不仅因为生猪需求拉动了生猪价格,而且因为乐观影响的态度将为价格提供一个动力。中国也将逐步进入市场。中国的现实看好,我们需要这个故事。

责任编辑:宋美丽  

热门讨论

产品直通车

百度推广