猪价北方微弱反弹，短期有望止跌企稳

　　 进入8月，猪价止跌的迹象，全国猪价主线维稳，局部地区略有反弹。东北及河南地区首先小幅反弹。因东北猪价跌至全国洼地，养殖户抵触心理增强，部分出现惜售压栏的现象，屠宰厂收购困难， 难以上量，迫使屠宰厂被动提高采购价格，猪价略有反弹。而华北地区因优质猪源紧缺， 稳中伴涨。山东因近期屠宰厂持续压价，部分低价已降至17元/公斤附近，导致低价补涨。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

　　经过近期出栏速度加快，北方生猪供应宽松的局面有所改观，部分地区供应偏紧，且养殖户惜售心理渐起，导致猪价略有反弹，短期微弱反弹有望延续。

　　南方猪价相对偏高，猪价暂时趋稳。目前北方猪价微弱反弹属低价补涨，消费低迷依然压制价格反弹。河南生猪因大型屠宰厂压价厉害，养殖户抗价心理出现，尽管报价稳定，但实际交易价格小幅回升。

　　随着北方微弱反弹，南北价差略有收窄，但目前价差仍存，因高温受阻，长距离运输难以开展，南北价差短期难以平衡。

　　华中市场因标猪缺少，价格难以下跌，后市存反弹需求。因收购量减少，今日安徽及江苏温氏小幅上调猪价。

　　随后两日，台风“妮妲”将登陆广东海岸，随后向北移至长江流域一带，受其影响，华南，江南，长江流域一带将有明显降水，部分地区可能出现暴雨。尽管对高温天气有所改善，但短期急剧降水可能导致猪场受损，清养殖户及时防备。

　　全国依然被高温天气所覆盖，终端消费短期难有起色，猪价反弹乏力，北方猪价微弱反弹难以蔓延到全国，无法形成大面积和趋势性的反弹，短期内猪价止跌企稳的概率较大。猪价止跌，对经历长达两个月生猪下跌来说，是个好信号，意味着后市有望反弹。

责任编辑：黄志凤