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美国猪肉出口下降10% 小小的奇迹

作者:Pork Commentary来源:福建一春农业发展有限公司时间:2015-04-22 09:21点击:

  US pork exports were 10% lower in February compared to a year before. At 377 million pounds this year, a 38 million pound decline. In our opinion a small miracle considering the US Pacific Pork issues in this time frame. When we look at the big picture a 10% decline tells us that Asia wants US pork and as the ports get back to full speed we expect US pork exports to surpass a year ago.

  2月,美国猪肉出口比前一年下降了10%。今年为37700万磅,减少了3800万磅。考虑到这段时间内出现了美国太平洋猪肉事件,我们认为这是小小的奇迹。如果我们从大的方面来看,10%的下降幅度告诉我们亚洲人想要美国的猪肉,各港口恢复全面生产,我们预计美国猪肉出口将会超越一年前。

  Chinese domestic swine price last week was 12 rmb per kilogram or 94.17₵ USD liveweight per pound. Double the US liveweight price of 46.43₵. There is no way that capitalism will not push pork to China if ports and shipping get back to full speed.

  上周,中国国内猪价是12元/公斤,即94.17美分/磅活重。这是美国活重价格46.43美分的2倍。如果港口和运输都恢复到全面生产的水平,资本主义不可能不推动猪肉到中国。

  Every year Genesus recognises our customers who wish to participate in our 25 plus weaned for the calendar year. Many participate but many other do not want their names published. As our company has grown, we have gotten more customers and production results have continually improved. This past year our herds over 25 weaned continue to exceed all other Genetic companies. We are very happy for our customers as the prolific results combined with better growth, carcass, and health continues to put Genesus customers at the top of profit margins in any bench marking system.

  每一年,加裕都会挑选出愿意参与每年断奶25头以上活动的加裕客户。参与的人很多,但还有很多人不希望公开姓名。随着公司的壮大,我们的客户越来越多,生产水平不断提高。过去的一年,我们断奶超过25头的猪场继续领先其他所有种猪公司。我们非常高兴地看到我们的客户能拥有高产仔的成绩,同时能有更好的生长速度、胴体表现和健康水平。这使得加裕客户能在所有标杆对比系统(bench marking system)中持续处于利润率顶峰。

  It makes Genesus very proud to congratulate the following customers for outstanding achievement in production. We value our customer business and see our responsibility to continue delivering ever increased genetic productivity and health.

  加裕自豪地祝贺这些客户取得的杰出生产成绩。我们重视我们客户的业务,并认识到我们有责任继续提供不断提高的遗传生产力和健康。

  This past week 52 – 54% lean hogs increased from 59.89 to 63.02 per pound, that is a 3₵ We expect a relentless price increase over the coming weeks.

  上周,52~54%瘦肉猪价格从59.89美分上涨至63.02美分/磅,上涨了3美分。我们预计接下来几周价格将会无情上涨。

  A year ago US lean hogs averaged 219.19 pound carcass, this year 214.52 pound, or about a 4.8 pound decline. No doubt we are pulling hogs ahead. At some point this dog is going to run to the end of the chain. When weights stop dropping hog marketings will decline and hog and hog prices will jump.

  去年,美国瘦肉猪平均胴体重为219.19磅,今年为214.52磅,下降约4.8磅。毫无疑问,我们正在提前出猪。这正在走向尽头。如果体重停止下降,生猪出栏将会减少,生猪和生猪价格将会上涨。

  US Pork Cut outs last Friday 67.99₵ per pound

  上周五,美国猪肉切块的价格为67.99美分/lb。

  US Beef Cut outs last Friday 257.79₵ per pound.

  上周五,美国牛肉切块的价格为257.79美分/lb。

  The spread between pork and beef will narrow. No way is the price difference sustainable. Beef will be pulling pork higher over the coming weeks.

  猪肉和牛肉的差价将会缩小。差价不可能持续下去。未来几周内,牛肉将会抬高生猪价格。

  Avian Flu is hitting turkeys in the US and Canada. Whole flocks are being destroyed. Not sure what it means to the pork market. Could be negative if some export markets close to US poultry. Flip side dead poultry means less meat available. Wildcard if it gets in Poultry Breeding Flocks the multiple effect of production capacity loss could be significat.

  禽流感对美国和加拿大的火鸡造成了打击。整个禽群正遭受破坏。不确定这对猪肉市场意味着什么。如果一些出口市场对美国禽肉关闭,这可能是负面的消息。另一面,家禽的死亡意味着可售的肉品减少。关键是,如果这影响到种禽场,对产能下降的加倍影响将是巨大的。

  Grain watch has begun. As an industry we need feed prices to stay reasonable. We expect farmers being farmers, the acres will get planted. Then we watch the weather to see how our lives are affected. Last year the US summer was not hot. One result of that US hog weights and subsequently pork tonnage didn’t get pushed lower due to growth slow downs due to the heat.

  谷物的种植已经开始。我们这个行业需要保持合理的饲料价格。我们希望农民就是农民,土地得到播种。然后我们可以观察天气,看看我们的生活如何受到影响。去年美国夏季并不炎热。其中一个结果是,美国生猪体重和后续的猪肉产量没有被高温带来的生产速度下降所压低。

责任编辑:宋美丽  

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