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美国农业部红肉及禽肉产量预测

作者:温鹏编译来源:加拿大加裕时间:2015-10-23 10:43点击:

  The October USDA projection for US Red Meat & Poultry Production for 2016 indicates expectations for major protein availability.

  美国农业部在10月份的2016年美国红肉及禽肉产量预测对现有主要蛋白质进行了预计。

  Red Meat & Poultry

  Production Million Pounds

  红肉及禽肉产量(百万磅)

 


 

  We don’t need a computer, or need to be an ag–economist to figure that if USDA is correct that in 2016 we will have 3 billion pounds more meat and poultry, we will have our hands full (mouths full)?

  我们不需要电脑,也不需要农业经济学家来指出美国农业部是否正确。我们的红肉和禽肉在2016年将会增加30亿磅,我们要塞满我们的手和嘴?

  The USDA is projecting almost 213 pounds per capita disappearance 10 pounds more than 2014. We had better be getting exports increased and sure, the heck don’t need any more vegetarians! The sheer volume of poultry and red meat coming will be challenging.

  美国农业部预计,人均消费将近213磅,比2014年多10磅。我们最好马上增加出口和确保素食主义者真的不要再增加了!未来的禽肉和红肉的绝对数量将颇具挑战性。

  Other Observations

  我们的观察

  Sow market is picking up big sows now bringing over 65¢ a big bump compared to a few weeks ago. Selling sows, buying gilts is a good cash flow scenario right now.

  母猪市场正在接收淘汰母猪,现在的价格超过65美分,比几周前上涨不少。当前,淘汰老母猪并购买后备母猪是一种很好的现金流方案。

  Cash US early wean pig price is recovering from the $15 per head a couple months ago averaging about $37 last week. At $37 most, if not all producers should not be losing money. $15 was not if you were losing; it was how much a head. Going forward we suspect the price to continue to rise. One early wean broker told us last week that he expects early weans to reach $60.

  美国早期断奶猪现货价格从几个月前每头15美元恢复到上周的平均37美元。在37美元的情况下,大多数生产者应该不会亏本。15美元的价格则是在亏损,亏损达到1头猪的价格。展望未来,我们怀疑价格将继续上升。上周,一位早期断奶猪的经纪人告诉我们,他预计早期断奶猪会达到60美元。

  The US corn harvest is in full swing. For what it is worth all the producers, we have talked to are relatively happy with their yields. Some have the best yields ever. December corn at $3.76 close Friday night have little traction to increase unless the US dollar declines relative to other currencies.

  美国的玉米收成正在如火如荼地进行中。不管怎样,和我们交谈的生产者都对他们的产量相对满意。一些人达到了有史以来最好的产量。12月的玉米在周五晚上收盘于3.76美元。稍微有点上涨的趋势,除非美元对其它货币贬值。

  We do not sense a strong push for expansion in Canada or USA. The relative fear of low prices and the deluge of meat coming is holding most expansion in check. In Canada there is if not zero expansion then next to zero. In the US incremental expansion but nothing like in the 90’s when 100’s of thousands of sows were placed in new facilities. Now that’s over and we suspect will never happen again.

  我们没有感受到加拿大或美国有扩张的强大动力。对低价的相对恐惧以及即将到来的大量肉品使得多数扩张得以停滞。在加拿大,即使存在扩张也是接近于零。美国呈现逐步扩张,但并不像90年代时几百个上千头母猪的新猪舍建设。现在一切结束,我们怀疑这将永远不会再次发生。

  Packer margins remain strong – US Pork Cut–Outs 88¢ per pound – Market Hogs 70¢ per pound. Packers have a good margin. We remain positive that the 88¢ per pound reflects strong pork demand. Last week 2.3 million hogs went to market. The strong US pork cut–outs in the face of so many hogs should help hog prices when market numbers decline seasonally.

  屠宰厂的利润仍然很高,美国猪肉切块的价格为88美分/磅,商品猪价格为70美分/磅。屠宰厂利润不错。我们仍然看好,每磅88美分的价格反映了强劲的猪肉需求。上周有230万头生猪出栏。在这么多猪的情况下强劲的美国猪肉切块价格将有助于生猪价格,出栏数量此时会有季节性下降。

责任编辑:宋美丽  

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