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加裕养猪评论--夏季市场仍有利可图

作者:Jim Long来源:加裕种猪公司时间:2017-07-31 13:32点击:

夏季的生猪市场继续保持着强劲的利润形势。瘦肉型生猪价格在每磅90美分以上。去年同期的瘦肉型生猪平均价格为每磅72美分。两者的差异至少为每头猪36美元。巨大的利润提升。在上周的全国猪肉产业大会上,我们收到了一份来自行业领袖的称赞“Jim Long,你是唯一一个预测今年夏天瘦肉型生猪价格会到90美分的人。”事实上,我们有时会怀疑自己这种情况是否会出现,尤其是在6月的期货价格为每磅68美分的时候。我们的感觉是,屠宰的利润率很高,其他国家的价格高点,以及强势的牛肉价格,将会推动美国生猪价格到每磅90美分。很高兴这个价格实现了,生产商努力工作,而这个行业面临的挑战也更多。没有人是应该获得利润,但是如果要说任何一个群体值得一场胜利,那就是生猪生产商。当人们谈论整合和更少的生产商时。最好记住,大多数生产商不会退出,因为这是一个怪异的行业。我记得一位行业领袖说过整合。“弱者和孩子都死了,剩下的都是战士。”

The summer hog market continues to provide strong profits.  Lean Hogs over 90¢ lb.  Last year same time U.S lean hogs were averaging 72¢ lb.  The difference at least $36 per head to the better.  Huge profit margin improvement.  We had a real nice compliment last week at NPIC from an industry leader “Jim Long you are the only person that predicted 90¢ lean for this summer.”  Indeed at times we wondered ourselves if it would happen, especially when June lean futures were 68¢ lb.  Our feeling was strong packer margins, high price points in other countries and strong beef prices would pull U.S hogs to 90¢.  Glad it worked out, producers work hard and this business has more then enough challenges.  No one deserves profits, but if any group deserves a win its hog producers.  When people talk of consolidation and fewer producers.  It’s good to keep in mind that most producers don’t quit because this business is eerie.  I remember an industry leader saying about consolidation.  “The weak and children are dead all that’s left are the warriors.”

母猪

Sows

通常情况下,当母猪群体扩张的时候,你会预计母猪屠宰量减少。我们需要指出的是,今年1月至6月,今年的母猪数量是149.2万头,去年是142.6万头,比今年少66000头。今年6月是25.4万头,去年是24万头。美国农业部4-6月发布的的季度报告中,母猪存栏减少了2万头。扩张?

Usually when there is sow herd expansion you would expect that sow slaughter would decrease.  We need to point out that this year January to June, this year 1.492 million last year 1.426 million 66,000 fewer this year.  June this year, 254,000 last year 240,000.  USDA U.S in the quarter April-June sow inventory decreased 20,000.  Expansion? 

Meta Farms(提供家畜数据管理系统软件的公司)

Meta Farms

Meta Farms最近公布的数据,来自11月1日至4月30日6个月期间多个农场合计70万母猪。我们注意到大型农场分类中,母猪平均死亡率为12.9%。一年前是10.8%。我们相信有些肢蹄脆弱和温度应激基因的母猪不利于群养,这些母猪在推动群养的过程中有一段艰难时期。死亡的母猪损失了销售收入,而且死亡的母猪也不产出仔猪。我们看出,对一些基因公司来说,推动母猪群养是一个巨大的挑战。这将成为基因公司下一个排名因素。死亡母猪,没有仔猪。不是一个利润强化剂。

Meta Farms recently published data from farms totaling 700,000 sows, Nov 1 – April 30 – 6 months.  What we noticed was the 12.9% sow mortality average in the large farm category.  A year ago it was 10.8%.  We believe some genotypes with weak legs and temperament not conducive to group housing are having a hard time in the push to group housing.  Dead sows are lost revenue from sow sales and dead sows don’t provide pigs.  We see the push to group housing is a big challenge for some genetic companies.  It will be the next genetic company sort.  Dead sows. No pigs.  Not a profit enhancer.

市场

Markets

这周我们会去英国,荷兰和德国。了解市场的一部分就是走出去看看正在发生的事情。我们继续经营加裕的业务,在此期间,我们有机会获得同行的观点。

This week we will be in England, Netherlands and Germany.  Part of understanding the markets is getting out to see what’s happening.  We go on Genesus business but while there we get the opportunity to get the opinion of fellow producers.

夏季出游

Summer Trip

这次,我的两个儿子Spencer和Aidan与我一同旅行。十分幸运能够带上他们一起去。他们会去参加所有的会议,因为这是他们了解商业活动的一部分。我们也会去参观一些名胜,比如英国的伦敦。下周我们将报道在到访国家的见闻。

This trip I am travelling with two of my sons Spencer and Aidan.  I am fortunate to take them with me.  They go to all the meetings as its part of their understanding how business is done.  We also get to see some sights, such as London, England.  Next week we will report our observations on countries we visit.  

责任编辑:宋美丽  

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