生猪市场萧条

　　Hog Market in Doldrums

　　生猪市场萧条

　　The US hog market appears to be mired in the doldrums. USDA carcass cut-outs averaged 80₵ last week while 53-54% USDA lean hog prices were 86.48₵.

　　It is not only hog farmers that can’t produce for 86₵ at a profit but packers have negative margins also. Not a very good scenario; Lose-Lose. It doesn’t take an ag-economist to calculate that this business isn’t looking too shiny.

　　美国生猪市场似乎陷入萧条之中。上周美国农业部的屠体分割肉平均价格是80 ₵，而美国农业部的53-53%瘦肉猪价格是86.48 ₵。不仅养猪户不能在86 ₵赢利，屠宰厂同样处于亏损。这个局面并不好，双输。这个行业看上去并不好，并不需要农业经济学家进行计算。

　　Other Observations

　　其它观察

　　• Last year same time 53-54% lean National price was 85.86₵. This year 86.48₵. Unfortunately corn was $6.40 a bushel versus $7.00 (was $7.40) and Soymeal a year ago $322 a ton versus, $409 ton this year. Higher costs and no more money for hogs! Lose even more money.

　　• 去年同期的53-54%瘦肉猪全国价格是85.86 ₵。今年是86.48 ₵。不幸的是，去年的玉米是$6.40美元/蒲式耳，而今年是$7.00美元（原为$7.40）。去年的大豆是$322美元/吨，而今年是$409美元/吨。更高的成本且猪价没有上涨！损失更多的钱。

　　• USDA 40-50 lb. feeder pigs are currently averaging $75.00, a year ago they were $85.00. The lower price a reflection of higher feed prices this year but in our opinion not from more supply.

　　• 美国农业部40-50磅生长猪的平均价格目前是$75.00，去年是$85.00。价格下跌反映了今年更高的饲料价格，而我们的观点是并非来自供应量增加。

　　• US Pork exports were 5.38 billion pounds last year. A new record (+3.7%). We expect continued strong exports in 2013 as global pork demand continues to increase while USA-Canada currently has the cheapest source of pork.

　　• 去年，美国猪肉出口了53.8亿磅。这是新的纪录（增加了3.7%）。由于全球猪肉需求不断走高，而美国-加拿大目前有最廉价的猪肉来源。我们预计2013年的猪肉出口将继续走强。

　　Corn-Grains

　　玉米-谷物

　　Over the last couple years we have written about how on our travels to Russia, Ukraine, Brazil and China we have seen the tremendous push to bring un-cultivated lands into production and increase yields. In the past when US corn hovered around $2.00 a bushel there was no incentive to bring land into production and push yields higher. Recently we saw data that indicates the world has in the last five years brought 123 million new acres into crop production. The US has shifted 20 million acres to corn from other crops on top of this 123 million.

　　在过去的十年间，我们写了很多我们在俄罗斯、乌克兰、巴西和中国看到的情形。我们看到他们极力将未开垦的土地用于生产并增加产量。过去，当美国玉米价格徘徊在$2.00美元/蒲式耳时，并没有任何动力来将土地用于生产并提高产量。最近我们看到的数据表明，在过去五年间全世界有12,300万亩新的土地用于作物生产。美国有2,000万亩土地从其它作物转向玉米，在12,300万亩中名列前茅。

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