美国生猪现货继续上涨

　　US Cash Hogs Continue to Push Higher

　　美国生猪现货继续上涨

　　The relentless push to higher cash hogs continues. Last week National lean hogs moved 3¢/lb. higher a further jump of $6.00 per head week over week.

　　生猪现货仍在无情上涨。上周，全国瘦肉型猪每磅上涨了3美分。每头猪与上周环比增加6美元。

　　US Cash hogs are now $24.00 per head higher than a year ago. The average farrow to finish producer has gone from losing $35 per head six weeks ago to break even or better. The sucking sound of producer equity drain has stopped. It’s not good breaking even but it’s a lot better than an industry going backwards. $80 million a week as it was in March.

　　目前，美国生猪现货价格每头比去年同期高24美元。6周前，普通的自繁自养生产者平均每头猪损失35美元。现在已经可以实现保本甚至达到更好的水平。现在已经听不到生产者因资产缩水而发出的泄气声。虽然并不能达到很好的收支平衡，但总比行业倒退要好。三月份的情况是每周8千万美元。

　　Hog numbers we sense are tight. Average National hog weights are 3.5 lbs. lighter than a year ago. It is estimated Packer Margins are minus $12 per head, (does not include Packer margin on processing and exports).

　　我们感觉到生猪数量紧张。全国平均生猪重量比去年同期轻3.5磅。据估计，屠宰厂每头猪亏损12美元（不包括加工和出口的屠宰厂利润）。

　　It’s not a good time to be a Packer. They are paying more for hogs because they have to in order to maintain market share and pork orders. Packers don’t deliberately lose money or partake in acts of charity. They are paying more because they have to.

　　对屠宰厂而言，形势并不乐观。他们为生猪付出更多的成本，因为他们必须维持市场份额和猪肉订单。屠宰厂并不是故意亏损或以慈善的形式来分享。他们支付额外的成本是因为他们不得不这么做。

　　We continue to believe that the combination of seasonality of hog supply coupled with the liquidation of the breeding herd that happened beginning last July is continuing to fuel hog prices higher. Last week there were individual lots of lean hogs over $1.00 lean per lb. We expect lean hogs will push higher as the reality of lesser supply happens week upon week.

　　我们仍然相信生猪供应的季节性加上去年七月开始的种猪群减栏将继续推高生猪价格。上周个别批次的瘦肉型猪价格超过$1.00/磅瘦肉。由于供应减少，我们预计瘦肉猪价格将继续上涨。

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