2014-养猪年

2014 – The Year of the Pig Farmer

2014-养猪年

　　The Chinese have the year of the horse, dragon, dog, etc. The last few years in North America and much of the world it's been the years of the Grain farmer. High Grain prices pushed mostly triggered by US Government Corn Ethanol Mandates and by regional drought not only lead to record grain production profits but unprecedented farmland appreciation. (If there is 315 million arable acres in USA, each $1,000 an acre appreciation of land was $315 billion dollars). This created wealth or at least paper wealth.

　　中国人用马、龙、犬等动物来表示不同的年份。在北美及世界的多数地区，过去的几年都属于谷物种植者。由美国政府玉米乙醇授权及区域性干旱所推高的谷物价格不仅带来了历史性谷物生产利润，还带来了史无前例的农田增值。（如果美国有3.15亿英亩农田，每英亩增值1,000美元就是3150亿美元。）这创造了财富，至少是帐面的财富。

　　The huge jump in Global Grain Prices has triggered grain development in much of the world. For the last few years we have written as we travelled the world especially Russia, Ukraine, China and Brazil our observations of millions of acres of land coming into Grain production. In 2013 the world produced 55% more corn than in 2006. An unprecedented increase. The old saying “The surest cure for high prices is high prices” comes to mind.

　　全球谷物价格的巨大变化引发了世界多数地方的谷物增长。在过去几年中我们写道，我们环游世界时发现数以万计的土地开始用于谷物生产，特别俄罗斯、乌克兰、中国和巴西。 2013年，世界的玉米产量比2006年高出55%。这是前所未有的增长。古语说，“治疗高价的最好药方就是高价”。事实应验了。

　　The world for Grain Farmers is now going upside down on the Chicago Board of Trade last January-March was $6.50 a bushel, last week March closed at $4.23. The USDA estimates that it cost around $4.10 a bushel to produce corn. The bloom has gone off the proverbial rose for grain farmers.

　　谷物种植者的世界现在随着芝加哥商品交易所起起落落。去年一月，三月的期货价格是每蒲式耳6.50美元。上周三月份的期货收于4.23美元。美国农业部估计，生产玉米的成本在每蒲式耳4.1美元左右。谷物种植者的春天已经过去。

　　In 2014 it will be the Year of the Pig Farmer. Feed Costs have dropped about $35 per head while lean hog futures (i.e. June) at 1.01 are $20 per head higher than they were last summer for June 2014. Hog Farmers who are in business are survivors. The last five years have not been good. Most Producers have less equity in their swine business that they did five years ago. A few days ago the USDA released the December 1 Hogs and Pigs Report. It indicates fewer breeding animals and fewer market hogs year over year. This seemed to surprise the Chicken Little economists who were predicting expansion. We note that these predictors of expansion do not own hogs, never have, and never will. They don't understand how hard owning pigs are, they never lost money raising hogs, never borrowed money, gave personal guarantees, struggled to make payroll, never had a pig disease (i.e.Prrs, PED, etc.). Bottom-line, there is no expansion because there isn't the capital and courage to get it done. The equity hole is huge. It needs to be backfilled. These producers that hung in and survived are now going to be rewarded in 2014.

　　2014年将是养猪人的一年。每头猪的饲料成本下跌了35美元左右，而瘦肉猪期货（即六月）为1.01美元。2014年六月，每头猪将比去年夏天高出20美元。从事这个行业的养猪人都是幸存者。过去的五年，大家都过得不好。与五年前相比，多数生产者在养猪方面的资产都出现了缩水。几天前，美国农业部发布了12月1日的生猪报告。数据表明种猪和商品猪的数量都比往年同比下降。这应该会让那些胆小的经济学家们感到吃惊，他们预测会出现扩张。我们注意到这些预测扩张的人自己是不养猪的。他们从未养过猪也决不会。他们无法理解养猪人的艰辛，他们从未因为养猪而亏本，从不借钱、担保、付工资，从未遭遇猪病（即蓝耳病、猪流行性腹泻等）。总而言之，没有出现扩张的原因是没有任何资本有勇气去做。资本的亏空是巨大的。这些亏空需要被填补。这些坚持并存活下来的生产者们将在2014年得到回报。

　　2014 Will be the Year of the Pig Farmer. Lower Feed prices, fewer pigs, a stronger domestic economy, record high beef prices, good pork exports, PED all are a recipe for a 2014 that will be the most profitable in a decade. We all need our turn. We expect summer Lean Hogs will reach $1.10.

　　2014年将是养猪人的一年。更低的猪价、更少的猪、更强的国内经济、创纪录的牛肉价格、猪肉出口势头良好、猪流行性腹泻，以上这些都决定了2014年将是十年间利润最好的一年。需要轮到我们了。我们预计夏季瘦肉猪将达到1.10美元。

　　Happy New Year – 2014 the Year of the Pig Farmer.

　　新年快乐-2014年养猪年。

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