美国生猪供应量下降

US Hog Supply Drops

美国生猪供应量下降

　　It was good to see US hog marketings at 2,007,000 last week down 7% from a year ago.To keep hog prices high we need to see lower year over year numbers.Hog numbers down 7%.Cattle off last week 8% from a year ago, and chicks placed down 1% from same week last year.Less meat makes us more money, makes us smarter and maybe even better looking.

　　很高兴能看到上周的美国生猪出栏数达到2,007,000头，比去年下降了7%。我们需要看到数量同比下降才能保持较高的生猪价格。生猪数量下降7%。肉牛数量比去年下降8%，而肉鸡存栏比去年同一周下降1%。肉的供应减少使我们赚到更多钱，让我们变聪明，甚至变好看。

　　Cash US 40 lb. feeder pigs were $136.88 average last week.Have to say we never thought we would ever see prices like this.We expect the high for feeder pigs has been seen with calculations for feeder pigs being purchased soon to be calculated off October lean hog prices 99.30₵ versus August at 121.90₵ almost $50 per head less.That difference will come out of the feeder pig price we expect.

　　上周美国40磅生长猪现货的平均价格为136.88美元。不得不说，我们从来没有想过我们会有机会看到这样的价格。因为十月份出栏的瘦肉猪价格为99.3美分，而八月出栏的瘦肉猪价格为121.9美分，每头猪跌了将近50美元。我们认为看到的生长猪价格已经非常高。按我们的算法，会有不同的生长猪价格。

PED

猪流行性腹泻

　　PED has been a real market mover.It cuts supply and drives prices higher.We are concerned that many producers have not only been hit hard by the mortality but many have missed the opportunity of the higher hog prices is because they either sold hogs ahead and/or had bought lean hog futures at prices around $1.00 lean a pound range.Such producer will make money this year but will miss the $100 per head profits that appear to be available through to August.

　　猪流行性腹泻是推动市场的真实力量。它降低了供应并推高价格。我们注意到，很多生产者不仅是受到了死亡率的严重打击，还由于提前出售生猪或者在每磅瘦肉猪1美元左右时购买了瘦肉猪期货而错失了高猪价的机会。这样的生产者今年会盈利，但却错过了持续到八月份每头猪100美元的利润。

　　It's unfortunate for these producers.Many were pushed into price protection by their bankers.Sometimes you wonder if it's wise to let bankers drive the agenda.By nature they are risk adverse.That's why they work for a bank.They make loans – they don't get them.Most producers got ahead by borrowing, taking risk, pushing production, by being entrepreneurial.We feel real sad for producers who have missed a once in a generation profit window.

　　对于这些生产商而言是不幸的。许多人因为他们的银行家的原因而采取了价格保护。有时候你应该怀疑，让银行家来推荐日程是否理智。从本质上讲，他们是在规避风险。这就是为什么他们在银行工作。他们贷款出来，他们并没有获得贷款。多数生产者作为企业家通过贷款、冒险、推动生产来向前迈进。我们真的为这些生产者感到悲哀，他们错过了一代人才有一次的获利机会。

Expansion

扩栏

　　We believe sow herd expansion is underway.Some empty sow units are getting refilled.New sow barns are being planned and some getting underway.We expect PED will get under control.High prices lead to low prices.Maybe we are raining on the parade but we expect lots of pork being produced in eighteen months.We would suggest putting some money away for the rainy day.

　　我们相信，母猪扩群正在进行中。一些空的母猪场正在补栏。新母猪舍正在规划，还有一些正在建设。我们预计猪流行性腹泻将得到控制。高价终将走向低价。或许我们是在泼冷水，但是我们预计在未来18个月中将生产出大量的猪肉。我们建议准备一些资金以备不时之需。

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