三月猪肉产量和冷藏存量下降

March Pork Production and Cold Storage Lower

三月猪肉产量和冷藏存量下降

　　US pork production of 1.85 billion pounds was down 4% in March compared to last year. Hog slaughter was down 7% from March 2013. The average live weight was up 8 pounds from the previous year at 285 pounds.

　　三月，美国猪肉产量为18.5亿磅，比去年同期下降4%。生猪屠宰量比2013年3月下降了7%。平均活重比去年的285磅提高了8磅。

　　Beef production at 1.94 billion pounds, was 5% below the previous year.

　　牛肉产量为19.4亿磅，比去年低5%。

　　The combined Pork and Beef production in March was about 171 million pounds. That is equivalent to approximately 8500 tractor trailers of meat or about 13 miles of tractor trailers lined up. Is it any wonder pork and beef prices are as strong as they are? Current hog prices are $75 per head higher than a year ago. If everyone is on cash like market the industry should be receiving approximately $150 million a week greater revenue year over year. The equity hole created over the last few years is getting back filled quickly.

　　三月份的猪肉和牛肉总产量约为1.71亿磅。这相当于约8500辆拖拉机的肉品，而这些拖拉机可以排成13英里左右的长队。猪肉和牛肉价格的走强有什么值得惊讶的地方吗？目前生猪价格为75美元/头，比去年同期高。如果每个人都处于现货市场，整个行业每周的盈利将同比增加约1.5亿美元。过去几年所创造的资本亏空将很快被填补。

Pork in Storage

猪肉存量

　　US Pork in storage May 31 was 575 million pounds down 79 million pounds from the previous month. A year ago pork in storage was 647 million pounds. It's no surprise collapsing storage numbers, why would pork go in storage in March with hog prices near historical highs. We expect pork in storage will reach a historical low in the coming months, a reflection of very high hog prices.

　　5月31日的美国猪肉储量为5.75亿磅，比上月减少7900万磅。去年的猪肉存储为6.47亿万磅。储量的大量减少并不奇怪，三月的生猪价格接近历史高位，为什么要把猪肉储存起来呢？我们预计猪肉储量将在未来几个月内达到历史低位，作为对生猪高价的反映。

Market Hogs

生猪市场

　　Last week's US hog marketings were 1,999,000 down 146,000 from the same week a year ago. Cattle were down 40,000 head year over year. The red meat supply continues to be significantly below last year. We expect week upon week going forward of less red meat will test historical retail price highs.

　　上周，美国出栏量为1,999,000头，比去年同一周减少146,000头。肉牛较去年同比下降40,000头。红肉的供应继续明显低于去年。我们预计红肉在未来几周仍会减少，零售价格创历史新高。

Cash Early Weans and Feeder Pigs

早期断奶猪现货及生长猪

　　US cash early weans and feeder pigs are beginning to see seasonal weakness. Cash feeder pigs dropped $7.00 last week but still averaged $129.14. Truly a case of lower still meaning extremely high prices. A year ago cash feeder pigs were $58.00. As we say weakness is relative, cash feeder pigs are a whopping $71 per head higher than a year ago! Christmas in April for feeder pig sellers.Cash early weans last week averaged $80.10.

　　美国的早期断奶猪现货和生长猪开始出现季节性疲软。生长猪现货上周下跌了7美元，但平均价格仍然为129.14.美元。虽然跌价，但仍然是极高的价格。去年的生长猪现货价格为58美元。正如我们所说，疲软是相对的。生长猪现货每头比去年高出达71美元！对于生长猪的专家来说，四月份就是圣诞节。上周早期断奶猪现货的平均价格为80.1美元。

Sows

母猪

　　500 pound plus sows averaged over $1.00 a pound last week! $500 plus for a sow, unbelievable! No reason to hang on to old sows. Send them to town, buy a gift and put the difference in your pocket. It's a smart and easy play.

　　上周，500磅以上的母猪平均价格超过1美元/磅！每头母猪超过500美元，难以置信！没有理由保留那些老母猪。把猪卖掉，买个礼物并把剩下的钱放进口袋里。这是一个聪明而又简单的游戏。

Expansion

扩群

　　We see gilts going in. Expansion has started. Empty units getting restocked and new sow barns getting started. We have 18 months of good prices after that? Now is the time to pay debts, improve your technology and productivity. A plus for North American producers, China producers have been losing money, we expect major liquidation going on there. In the future China due to liquidation will be looking for pork and should support our prices. Short term we believe PED has hit over 50% – 60% of US sow herd (i.e.) 3 million – 3.5 million sows. A loss of 6-8 million pigs. We are having the greatest profits ever. A once in a generation happening. Ride it, enjoy it. When people say "This time will be different." Don't believe it.

　　我们看到了后备母猪的进入。扩群已经开始。空猪舍重新装了猪，新的母猪场重新启动。我们之后会有18个月的好价钱？现在是偿还债务、改进您的技术和生产力的时候。北美的生产者遇到好机会，中国的生产者正在亏本。我们认为他们会有较大的减栏。在未来的中国，减栏会导致猪肉减少，这会支撑我们的价格。短期内我们认为猪流行性腹泻影响了50%–60%美国猪群，即300–350万头母猪。造成了600-800万头猪的损失。我们拥有有史以来最好的利润。这种事情一代人只会遇上一次。把握并享受这一机会。如果人们说，“这一次将有所不同。”不要相信。

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