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加裕养猪评论 -- 2017年1月2日

作者:Jim Long来源:Genesus时间:2017-01-17 15:12点击:

上几周之后,12月份的生猪和养猪报告说美国种猪群体和出栏生猪和存栏量的上升都超过了去年同期的预期(种群增加1%,出栏增加4%)。我们很吃惊地看到瘦肉猪未来在过去一周提高了超过2美元。市场持续带给我们惊喜。和历史任何时期相关的市场比较,巨大量的猪肉上市并且美国猪肉分割肉价处于一个惊人的价格每磅82美元。我们不相信有任何预测到在美国每一个屠宰场满负荷运转(每天443000头)的情况下美国猪肉价格可以达到82美元。我们目前看到的猪肉需求状况说明了零售,食品服务和出口市场行情都很好。即将到来的2017年随着生猪供应季节性下降和新的美国的屠宰场投产,平均价格会很好。

After last weeks December Hogs and Pigs Report that indicated the U.S breeding herd and Market hog & inventories were up beyond any expectation year over year (Breeding +1% - Market +4%).  It is surprising that lean hog futures went up over $2.00 this past week.  This market continues to amaze us.  The relentless amount of pork going to market relative to anytime in history and U.S pork cut-outs are at an astounding 82¢ lb.  We don’t believe there is anyone who would have predicted U.S pork at 82¢ when every U.S slaughter plant is running at maximum (443,000 per day).  The pork demand that we are seeing is an indication of excellent retail, foodservice and export markets.  It averages well for the coming year in 2017 as hog supply declines seasonally and new U.S slaughter plants come on line.

生产力

Productivity

 

由于我们这个行业是一个竞争的行业,生产力和效率是获得经济效益的巨大因素。我们对于每年每头母猪生产什么有一个错误观念。有一些数字揭露了我们行业生产力的真相。

Productivity and efficiency are huge factors in our profitability as our industry is a commodity business.  There is a myth we believe on what people produce per sow per year.  There are some numbers that hit home the true reality of our industries productivity.

 

要看美国-加拿大总生产力,我们必须把美国和加拿大生猪屠宰数量加到一起。这会补偿来自加拿大的小猪和出栏生猪数量,然后除以2015年12月1日美国和加拿大结合的种群数量,我们选一年以前作为补偿生猪生产生命周期的日期。

To look at USA-Canada total productivity we have to add USA-Canada hog slaughter numbers together.  This will compensate for the small pigs and market hogs that come from Canada then we will divide this by USA-Canada combined breeding herd of December 1, 2015, we pick a year ago as the date to compensate for life cycle of pig production.

2015121

December 1, 2015

种猪群体(千头)

Breeding Herd (thousand head)

美国USA

6,002

加拿大Canada

1,240

总数Total

7,242

 

2016

出栏生猪(千

Hogs Marketed (thousand head)

美国USA

117,366

加拿大Canada *

20,452

总数Total

137,818

 

 * 预计的2016年前俩周

Estimated last 2 weeks 2016

 

137,818 ÷ 7,242 = 19.03 每头种猪出栏生猪头数hogs marketed per breeding animal

 

每头种猪出栏19.03头生猪是对美国-加拿大养猪行业一个非常接近的估算。不是25,也不是20. 而是对我们行业现实的真实反映。平均数意味着半数养殖户低于19. 我们不是统计学家,但是如果我们从19开始做贝尔曲线,每头母猪超过25头猪的很少。有多少低于15头呢?美国养猪生产一半以上都是排名前25个最大的实体企业生产的,那么他们的平均数怎么会和19差很多呢?

19.03 hogs marketed per breeding animal is a very close estimate of productivity of USA-Canada’s swine industry.  It’s not 25 or even 20.  It’s a true reflection of the reality of our industry.  An average means half of our producers are below 19.  We are not a statistician but if we bell curved from 19 there would be very few over 25 pigs per sow.  How many below 15?  Half of U.S production is produced by the top 25 largest entities, how can they on average be much different then 19.

 

加拿大

Canada

 

让我们来看看其他的数字游戏。加拿大在2016年将出口大约550万头小猪和商品生猪。我们把加拿大本国市场的商品生猪数量也加上,然后除以种猪群体数。Lets try some other number games.  Canada will export about 5.5 million small pigs and market hogs in 2016.  Lets add that too Canada’s own market hogs and divide by breeding herd.

 

加拿大2016 Canada 2016

 Thousand head

在加拿大出栏Marketed in Canada

20,452

出口到美国   Exports to USA

5,500

总数Total

25,952

 

加拿大除以Canada Divide 25,952 ÷ 1240 = 20.92 pigs.

 

很明显20.9219.03要高。其中一些是在上市之前会死亡的小猪。

Obviously the 20.92 numbers is higher compared to 19.03.  Some of it is small pigs that will die before they reach market.

 

现在让我们对美国也做同样的计算,减去从加拿大进口和从美国屠宰的全部猪的总数,然后除以美国种猪群体数。

Now lets do the same calculation for USA subtracting all pigs imported from Canada from USA slaughter total and then divide by U.S breeding herd.

 

美国2016USA 2016

总屠宰量Total Slaughter

117,366

加拿大进口量Canada Imports

5,500

总数Total

111,866

 

美国除以USA divide 111,866 by 6,002 = 18.63 每头种猪18.63头猪

pigs per breeding animal.

 

那加拿大的养殖户们每头种猪产的比美国养殖户们多3头猪吗?或许是,下面是来自于在边境俩边销售种猪的一些观察

Are Canadian producers 3 pigs per breeding animal better then U.S producers?  Maybe, have some observations from selling swine genetics both sides of border.

 

· 加拿大人倾向于始终投入于鼓励在生产中产出真正的F1代母猪来提高生产力

Canadians tend to stay committed to urging true F-1 females in production which enhances productivity

· 加拿大在生产中采用更多的杜洛克来降低总死亡率

Canada use of more Duroc boars in production leading to lower total mortality.

· 总体上来说加拿大群体健康程度更好

In general health of Canada herds is better

· 加拿大更高比例的是由个人所有和经营的生产体系,产出的猪进入他们自己的猪舍。

Canada has a higher proportion of production owned and operated by individuals that go into there own barns

· 总的来说加拿大营养关注性能而不是更低的成本。在加拿大用的DGG更少。In general Canadian nutrition focuses on performance not least cost.  Less DGG’s used in Canada.

· 来自原产国标签的巨大压力迫使我们只能做好或者灭亡。

The enormous pressure from Country of Origin labeling has forced to get better or die

 

字,有一些人对形式会有争议。他们也是国家的平均值。美国有许多非常好的养殖户。加拿大也有差一些的。做这个练习的主要意图是对真正的生产力水平有一个简单了解。你旁边的咖啡店谈论出栏25头生猪,但是没有数据支持。请记住平均数。贝尔曲线。这是在加裕我们展示来自真实猪场的真实数据的原因,而且都有客户名字。而不是随便想象出猪场A,猪场B。有一些真正顶尖的养殖户,我们许多人应该学习他们怎么做。

In general we observe average production in Canada better then U.S.  Obviously the numbers re extrapolated and some could argue with the format.  They are also averages of country.  In the U.S there are many excellent producers.  In Canada there are also poor ones.  The main pint of exercise is to give a rough snapshot of true productivity.  Next to you hear coffee shop talk of 25 hogs marketed with no offer of data to back up.  Remember the average.  The bell curve.  Its why at Genesus we show real results from real farms, with actual customers names.  Not the crap of Farm A, Farm B fantasies.  There are real top producers many of us can learn from what they do.  

 

新年到了。因此我们要采用全部最新的技术和知识来做得更好。伴随着我们正在经历的看似很好的猪肉需求和要投产的最新屠宰场,这应该是盈利的一年。预祝一个祥和繁荣的新年。

It’s a New Year.  Herby resolve to use all available technology and knowledge to get better.  With the seemingly excellent pork demand we are experiencing and new slaughter coming on line it should be a profitable year.  Have a safe and prosperous New Year.

 

新年

New Year

 

去伪存真。

“Ring out the false, ring in the true”

Alfred Lord Tennyson 


责任编辑:刘吉霏  

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