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加裕养猪评论 -- 2017年1月9日

作者:Jim Long来源:Genesus时间:2017-01-17 15:27点击:

Jim Long, President-CEO Genesus Inc.

201719

January 9, 2017

全球市场思考!

Global Market Thoughts!

 

新年到了,我们在思考中国养猪市场和它给我们带来的影响。

It’s the New Year and we are thinking about the China swine markets and how it will affect us.

中国 目前价格:活重每公斤17.51元。(美国,活重每磅1.14美元)

China – current price: 17.51 CNY/kg liveweight (U.S. $1.14/ lb liveweight)

中国养殖户们持续处于盈利状态。商品出栏生猪活重每磅1.14美元,推动了每头商品猪达到了300美元。尽管中国生产力更低并且饲料成本更高,但利润还是能达到每头猪超过100美元。China’s producers continue to be in the black, black, black. The market hog price of $1.14 US liveweight lb., is pushing $300 per market hog. Profits, despite China’s lower productivity and higher feed costs, are still over $100 US per head.

2016年进口到中国的猪肉达到了150万吨,是2015年的1.2倍。不同寻常的是尽管获得了创纪录的利润水平,中国母猪存栏尚未开始扩张。

1Pork imports to China hit 1.5 million tons in 2016, which was 1.2 times 2015. What is extraordinary is that the China sow inventtory has not started to expand despite record profits.

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*中国农业部

China Ministry of Agriculture

正如你们看到的,尽管过去一年每头猪的利润超过了100美元,中国政府官方统计显示去年中国母猪存栏并没有增加。

As you can see, despite profits exceeding $100 per head for over a year, official China Government statistics show no increase in the Chinese sow inventory in the last year.

中国政府预测20175.9亿商品生猪出栏。2015年,中国出栏了7.08亿头。少了超过1亿头。这一短缺将明显地支持下一年在中国市场上的强劲猪价,同时刺激从北美和欧洲持续进口大量猪肉。中国以外的所有养殖户们都有理由雀跃了,2017年中国将拥有的巨大的猪肉出口将支持每个国家的每个养殖户的价格。

The Chinese government is estimating 590 million market hogs in 2017. In 2015, China produced 708 million head. An over 100 million head shortfall. This shortfall will obviously support having strong prices in China over the next year while stimulating continued large pork imports from North American and Europe. All producers outside of China have reasons to rejoice, the huge pork exports China will have in 2017 will support every producer price in every country.

种猪进口

Breeding Stock Imports

2012年,中国种猪市场由美国纯种猪统治,在市场上超过了50%的份额。从那个时候开始,中国养殖户遭遇巨大的损失(损失了1100万头母猪),市场开始改变。当前,在中国存活下来的养殖户们寻求的是高产的基因,能够存活,生长,产仔多并且肉好吃。来自世界各地的出口数据告知我们市场演变的故事。

In 2012, the China Market for breeding stock was dominated by the U.S. purebred breeders, with well over 50% of the market. Since then and the huge losses producers in China got hammered with (they dropped 11 million sows) the market has changed. Now, the survivors in China are looking for high producing genetics that live, grow, have big litters, and have tasty meat. Exports from around the world tell the story of the market evolution.

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你们可以看到,加裕公司在中国进口市场占据统治地位。Porc Ex 现在也成为了加裕经销商。你们也观察到了,这里面没有从美国纯种猪行业进口的。2012年,美国是统治者。现在,经历了20132014年经济损失后大家都希望拥有更好的种猪创造了不同的故事。

As you can see, Genesus dominates the China import market. Porc Ex has now become a Genesus distributor. As you can observe, there are no imports from the USA purebred industry. In 2012, they were dominant. Today, the pressure to have better genetics after the financial losses in 2013-2014 creates a different story.

一些人会问为什么中国还没有扩张。我们认为:

Some might ask why China has not expanded in 2016. Our thoughts:

· 2013-2014年中国养殖户们损失了几十亿美元。那时候由于人们还在赚钱,母猪存栏减少超过1100万头并没有发生。实际上,当养殖户们赚钱的时候,我们会看到很少有退出的。存活下来的养殖户们要弥补巨大的损失才能恢复到他们之前的状况。

There were billions of dollars lost by Chinese producers in 2013-2014. 11 million sow plus decrease didn’t happen because people were making money. Indeed, we have seen few producers ever quit anywhere when they were making money. Surviving producers had big losses to cover to get back to where they were.

· 环保规定和政府政策让建新场的进程变得更困难。这一点减缓了扩张的可能性。Environmental regulation and government policy are making the process of building barns more difficult. This is slowing expansion possibilities.

· 疾病挑战是一个大问题。另外,现代生猪生产所需的人力资源技能也是短缺的。在自家散养过一些猪并不能让你有能力来管理一个2500头的母猪场。在中国常见的猪场员工在一段时期都要住在猪场里不能离开对于雇佣那些同时有其他职业机会的优秀人才并没有吸引力。我们很难相信,但是虽然中国有14亿人口,养猪的员工的雇佣还是一个挑战。

Disease challenges are a big issue. Also, human resource skills in modern hog production is in a shortage. Having some sows in the backyard doesn’t qualify you to run a 2500 sow unit. The general insistence that barn personnel have to live at the swine barn sites for weeks at a time without leaving is not conducive to hiring smart people with other career opportunities. It’s hard to believe, but despite 1.4 billion people in China, labour for pig producers is a challenge.

· 我们认为很长一段时间中国都将进口大量的猪肉。大概它们5%-15%的生产是需要的。这是很大的量。

We believe that China will import significant amounts of pork for a long time. Maybe 5-15% of their production needs. A significant amount.

美国

USA

对于养猪的人来说假期不是件好事。屠宰天数的损失让屠宰加工商们利用。今年的圣诞和新年一周的假期也不例外。

Holidays are never good for hog producers. The loss of slaughter days gives packers leverage. This year was no different, with Christmas and New Years a week apart.

我们预计下俩周将会出现更多的生猪出栏。那之后,出栏生猪数量会有一个季节性下降。美国猪肉分割肉价格每磅0.8美元,瘦肉生猪大约每磅0.55美元,0.25美元的差价对于屠宰加工商来说是巨大的动力让他们宰,宰,宰。他们会赚钱的。我们预计在生猪数量出现季节性下降时,屠宰加工商的利润会变小,瘦肉生猪是完全可以做到0.6美元的。

We expect the next two weeks will get hogs more current. After that, we expect a seasonal decline in hog numbers. With US pork cutouts at $0.80/lb and lean hogs about $0.55/lb, the $0.25/lb spread is great incentive for packers to kill, kill, kill. They will and they will make money. We expect though as seasonal decline in hog numbers come through, packer margin will narrow, lean hogs in the 60s soon is very doable.

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Canadian pigs making their way into the European market

By: Kees van Dooren, Pig Progress

加裕公司的种猪基因目前可以独家通过丹麦Porc-Ex 育种公司供应给几乎整个欧洲的客户。Genesus breeding material has become available for almost the whole of Europe exclusively through the Danish company Porc-Ex Breeding.

Porc-Ex 只在德国和西班牙不是经销商,但加裕种猪可以在这些国家销售。Porc-Ex 在乌克兰和白俄罗斯也是经销商。和Boerderij交流,Porc Ex种猪公司总监Holger Bøgebjerg Sørensen说道他们很开心能成为我们的经销商。经过对丹育公司销售结构的重新组织,Porc Ex剩下的都是销售代理。基于这个原因,他开始提供加拿大基因品系。

 Only in Germany and Spain Porc-Ex is not a distributor; nevertheless sales of Genesus genetics can happen in these countries. Porc-Ex is also distributor for Ukraine and Belarus. Speaking to Boerderij, a sister title to Pig Progress, Porc Ex-Breeding director Holger Bøgebjerg Sørensen stated that he is happy with having become the distributor. As the result of a reorganisation of the sales structure of Danish DanAvl, all that would’ve been left for Porc-Ex would be sales agent. For that reason, he has started offering the Canadian genetics line.

现在欧洲的养殖户们已经能买到加拿大种猪了吗?

Are Canadian genetics already available to European pig producers?

Bøgebjerg Sørensen说:肯定的!在一个法国合作AI组织,已经有25头公猪,大白和长白用于母猪育种,杜洛克作为终端父系。去年下半年开始了精液生产。预计2017年初第二批25头公猪会从加拿大运往法国。这些公猪都没有APP,蓝耳病和支原体疾病。养殖户们因此可以用加裕的猪去更新他们自己的母猪。

 Bøgebjerg Sørensen: “Most certainly. At Yxia, the French cooperative AI organisation, there are already 25 boars, Landrace and Yorkshire for sow breeding purposes and Duroc terminal sires. Semen production started late last year. I expect that a 2nd shipment of 25 boars will be travelling from Canada to France in early 2017. These boars will be free from Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae (App), Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) and mycoplasma. Pig producers can therefore also replace their own sows using Genesus pigs.”

你们也将开始繁育F1代母猪吗?

Will you also start breeding F1 sows?

当然,我们计划2017年初开始卖加裕F1代母猪。我们也考虑在丹麦开始一个分支育种场。

“Sure, we aim to start selling Genesus F1 sows early 2017. We do consider starting a sub-breeding farm in Denmark.”

什么是加裕种猪的附加值?

What is the added value of Genesus pigs?

和丹麦母猪相比,出生重更高;很少有低于800克的。这使得仔猪死亡率更低。仔猪死亡率是这个行业不能忽视的一个重要的社交主题。我认为丹育公司会继续在不考虑道德层面的前提下关注产仔数。

“In comparison to Danish sows the birth weight is higher; piglets under 800g are rare. This leads to a lower piglet mortality. Piglet mortality is an important social theme which the industry cannot ignore. I think DanAvl continues to focus on litter size without taking the ethical side into account.

“除此之外,加拿大母猪的妊娠期比丹麦母猪短2-3天。这一点的好处是哺乳期变长,需要的奶妈猪就会减少了。奶妈猪通常在一个更多周体系中工作起来更困难。”

“In addition, the gestation time of the Canadian sow is 2-3 days shorter than the Danish DanAvl sows. The advantage is that the lactation period takes longer and that the need for nurse sows is reduced. Nurse sows usually make it difficult to work with a more week system.

公猪的肉质也很好。毫无疑问,杜洛克终端父系已经在全球猪肉市场证明了它的优势

“Meat quality of the boars is also fine. Without a doubt, the Duroc terminal sire has proved that at global pork markets all over the world.”

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丹麦Porc-Ex 种猪公司总监

Holger Bøgebjerg Sørensen, director of Porc-Ex Breeding, Denmark.

那窝产仔数肯定会低一些了?

The number of piglets per litter must be lower then?

是的。但是加拿大母猪产的仔猪更健壮,死亡率更低。母猪良好的泌乳能力极大地提高了断奶重。我们已经在各国的猪场发现了这一点,也包括俄罗斯。在俄罗斯有各种大型猪场采用加裕种猪。

“True. The piglets of the Canadian sows, however, are more vital and mortality is lower. The sows’ good milk quality have added to significantly higher weaning weights. We have observed this at pig farms all over the globe, including Russia. In that country there are various large farms using these genetics.”

在缩水的市场获得市场份额听起来不是一份简单的工作

It doesn’t sound like an easy job – obtaining market share in a shrinking market.

我同意。尽管如此,我有信心在拥有如此好的产品加上对本土市场和文化的了解,我们可能在欧洲种猪市场上获得市场份额。作为本土合作伙伴,我们和不同国家的子公司合作。我们也获得了来自加拿大的大力支持来取得在欧洲市场上的这一位置。除此之外,加裕公司会组织很好的售后服务。最重要的,我们有开拓新市场的经验,这也是以前我们推广丹麦母猪时所做的。

“I agree. Nevertheless, I am convinced that it is possible to acquire that share on the European market for pig genetics, having a good product and knowledge of the local market and culture. To be a local partner, we cooperate with daughter companies in various countries. From Canada we receive a lot of support to acquire this position on the European market. In addition, aftersales is well arranged at Genesus. On top, we have experience with finding new markets, that is what we did before with Danish sows.”

你们对于母猪市场份额的目标是多少?

What market share for sows is your aim?

我没法告诉你。现在谈这些还为时尚早。我们和加裕猪的合作在欧洲刚刚开始。

“I couldn’t tell you. It’s just too early to say anything about that. We have just begun with Genesus pigs in Europe.”

接近1百万头仔猪用于出口

Almost 1 million piglets for export

丹麦公司Porc-Ex包括俩部分。Porc-Ex 种猪是卖种猪的一部分,在欧洲各个国家都有分公司。另一部分只是Porc-Ex,它是一个主要从丹麦出口仔猪的贸易公司。2016年,该公司出口了接近1百万头仔猪。最重要的目标国家是波兰,德国和意大利。

 The Danish company Porc-Ex consists of 2 parts. Porc-Ex Breeding is the section selling pig genetics, with subsidiaries in various European countries. In addition, there is just plain Porc-Ex, which is a trading business focused on exporting piglets from Denmark. In 2016, the company exported almost 1 million piglets. Most important destinations are Poland, Germany and Italy. 


责任编辑:刘吉霏  

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