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熏肉的需求大大增加 这对猪肉削减意味着什么?

作者: Jim Long来源:加裕种猪时间:2017-02-23 08:57点击:

加裕养猪评论

Pork Commentary

加裕总裁兼CEO Jim Long,

 Jim Long, President-CEO Genesus Inc.

2017213

February 13, 2017

熏肉短缺?

Bacon Shortage?

 

过去几年,北美市场对熏肉的需求大大增加。汉堡里的培根、培根在所有早餐中如麦当劳,培根不可或缺。这对猪肉削减意味着什么?以下是一些有历史价值的事实。
Over the last few years, the demand for Bacon in the North American market has greatly increased. Bacon on burgers, Bacon in all day breakfast programs such as McDonalds, Bacon on everything. What has that meant to US pork cut-outs? Below is some historical values.


美国猪肉分割肉成本

U.S. Pork

Cut-Outs

$ Cost

腰肉成本

Loins

14-19lb

$ Cost

五花肉

Bellies

10-12 lb

$ Cost

火腿

Hams

20-23 lb

$Cost

Jan 1, 2000

57.65

99.29

80.45

45.91

May 1, 2005

75.67

133.45

87.31

61.53

Aug 1, 2008

89.57

128.86

74.17

89.35

Aug 1, 2013

101.71

128.96

177.24

87.69

Dec 1, 2016

78.07

85.90

121.10

75.05

Jan 1, 2017

79.75

92.75

142.50

53.00

Feb 10, 2017

85.09

73.87

180.81

61.09

 

你可以看到,几年前,腹部的肉还比当腰肉便宜。现在,腹部肉的价格远远超过当腰肉。
As you can see, bellies were cheaper than loins until a few years ago. Now, belly prices outstrip loins by a significant amount.

美国最新猪肉冷库报告中的腹部肉库存量为1700万英镑,创下1957以来新低。我们所谈及的包装工报告腹部肉短缺。这很惊人,考虑到每天443000头猪被屠宰,这个数字意味着我们在大量屠猪。腹部肉的价格怎样?考虑到库存中没有腹部肉以及由于正常的季节性生产周,市场热狗数量会下降。 $2.00+?不能就此下赌注。
The latest Pork in U.S. Cold Storage Report puts belly inventory at 17 million pounds, the lowest since 1957. Packers we have talked to report of a belly shortage. It’s amazing, considering the daily slaughter of 443,000 head, a number that tells us we are at maximum harvesting capacity. Where will the belly price go? Considering next to no bellies in storage and number of market hogs will decline weekly due to normal seasonal production. $2.00+?Wouldn’t bet against it.

作为一个行业的一个重要事件,我们必须思考的是为什么腹部肉和肋骨在美国可以卖到最高价格猪肉分割。上星期五:腹部肉179.83、肋骨123.62、当腰肉73.87,火腿61.09。在2000-2010年,大多数火腿和当腰肉的价格比肋骨和腹部肉的价格要高。
One of the things as an industry we must be thinking of is why Bellies and also Ribs are the highest price of any item on U.S. Pork Cut-outs. Last Friday: Bellies 179.83, Ribs 123.62, Loin 73.87, Ham 61.09. In decade of 2000, Hams and Loins were mostly higher in price than Ribs and Bellies.

1990年代,腹部肉开始降至每磅0.28美元。记得我的一个在包装行业的朋友说“腹部肉价格是每磅0.28美元,如果他们降到每磅0.20美元,他们是狗粮。”如何可以改变事情。
In the 1990’s, Bellies got down to $0.28/lb. Remember a friend of mine in the Packer Industry saying “Bellies are $0.28/lb, if they get to $0.20/lb, they are dog food.” How things can change.

我们认为腹部肉和肋骨价格最高的原因是因为它们味道很好!他们有味道,所以消费者很愿意花钱购买。这就创造了需求。作为一个行业,我们对生产瘦肉型猪的迷恋使我们对火腿和腰部的需求缺少。无味、无花纹、色淡及几乎不含水猪肉干是真材实料。大多数等级制不奖励更好的猪肉,而是完全相反。有些人生产无味的垃圾瘦肉,连自己都不想吃。
We believe the reason Bellies and Ribs are the highest price is because they taste good! They have flavour, and consumers vote with their money. That creates the demand. As an industry, our infatuation to produce lean pigs has wacked demand for hams and loins. Tasteless, dry pork with no marbling, light in colour, and with little water holding capacity has been a fool’s gold. Most grade systems do not reward better tasting pork, but quite contrary. The lean tasteless crap that some produce but in turn don’t want to eat themselves.

更好的品尝猪肉不是一个利基行业。这是我们的行业需要集中精力的所在。在火腿和腰部切口上每磅加0.20美元,等同于您给市场生猪胴体价值增加$20。这不是个利基。生产更好的猪肉,让每个美国人多吃一顿猪肉。这是相当于800万头猪。需求等于PED怎么做我们的市场(减去800万头),可能使每头生猪市场价值增加30美元。
Better tasting pork is not a niche industry. It’s what our industry needs to get focused on. Add $0.20/lb on hams and loin cut-outs, you put $20 on the carcass value of a market hog. That’s not a niche. Produce better tasting pork and have every American eat one more meal a month of pork. It’s equal to 8 million hogs. That demand is equal to what PED did for our market (minus 8 million head), probably added $30 per head to market hog value.

 

口感好的猪肉创造需求(腹部肉、肋骨等等。).我们有更好的猪肉,我们的选择是我们的行业,驱动利润或真材实料即非多汁猪肉的瘦肉干。味道不是一个利基,而是一个普遍的需求驱动程序。
Better tasting pork creates demand (bellies, ribs, etc.). We have better pork available, the choice is for our industry, to drive profits or chase the fool’s gold of lean dry non-juicy pork. Flavour is not a niche but a universal demand driver.

PIC

我们是猪遗传公司。这是我们的热情和生计。我们注意我们的竞争对手。Genus -PIC是在伦敦证券交易所一个公开交易的公司,是迄今为止世界上最大的种猪遗传公司。我们回顾了他们的财务报表。
We are in the swine genetic business. It’s our passion and livelihood. We pay attention to our competitors. Genus-PIC is a publically traded company on the London Stock Exchange and is by far the largest swine genetic company in the world. We reviewed their financial statements.

Some Observations

· PIC报告,他们每年约影响1亿3600万头猪,这是世界养猪产量的10%。这告诉我们:在10%的全球份额,市场仍然支离破碎,有很多增长潜力。
PIC reports they influence about 136 million hogs per year, which would be about 10% of the world’s pig production. This tells us at 10% global share, the market is still fragmented with a lot of growth potential.

· KarimBitar,首席执行官–去年的薪酬应该是160万6000英镑(2005492美元)。这是很漂亮的包装。
KarimBitar, CEO – renumeration was 1.606 million pounds last year (2,005,492 US dollars). That’s a nice package!

· PIC收入1亿7650万。调整后的营业利润为6420万英镑。利润在集团开销之前。这是一个很好的利润!
PIC Revenue 176.5 million. Adjusted operating profit 64.2 million (pounds). Profit is before group overhead. It’s a very good profit!

· 很大的股份。截至2016年9月1日,我们获悉本公司普通股以下重大权益。
Substantial Shareholdings. As of September 1, 2016, we were aware of the following material interests in the Genus company ordinary shares.

资金经理Fund Manager

持有股份Shareholding

%

Lansdowne Partners

5,988,888

9.82

Baillie Gifford + Co.

4,437,236

7.27

Columbia Threadneedle Investments

3,298,406

5.41

NFU Mutual Investments

2,935,122

4.81

Allianz Global Investors

2,378,251

3.90

Legal & General Investment Mgmt

2,211,141

3.62

Norges Bank Investment Mgmt

2,048,785

3.36

M&G Investments

1,901,531

3.12

 

· 不确切谁是农民谁是股东。显然,许多人将钱巧妙地投资于基因业务,寻找良好的回报。怀疑许多股东集团是否曾经种植过母猪、断奶猪、拉死母猪并于星期日上午做家务。也许这些都不是相关的点,我们只是相信应该了解关于我们的行业重要性的真正的螺母和螺栓。
Not exact a who’s who of farmers as shareholders. Obviously, lots of smart money investing in the genetic business and looking for good returns. Doubt if many in shareholder group have ever bred a sow, weaned a pig, pulled a dead sow, done chores Sunday morning. Probably these weren’t relevant points, we just believe understanding the real nuts and bolts of our industry does matter.

· 也许当你有这样一个优秀的股东,PRRS基因主张为自己的财务收益编辑比猪肉消费、出口猪肉需求和市场准入更重要。对我们大多数人来说,猪肉行业是我们所有投资和热情的所在。我们坚持不在一个地方投资一些钱,并期待一个回报。
Maybe when you have such an elite shareholder group, the idea of PRRS gene-editing for your own financial gain is more important than what it could do to consumer and export pork demand and market access. For most of us, the pork industry is where all our investment and passion is. Not a place we stick some money and expect a return.

· 伦敦证券交易所的Genus。 .问题-英国将批准转基因猪供人类食用吗?我们怀疑,但英国伦敦的公司毫无疑虑地推动产品进入其他国家,危及生产者市场和消费者的认可。
Genus is on the London England Stock Exchange. . Question – will England approve the Gene Edited Pigs for human consumption? We doubt it, but the London England based company has no qualms pushing the product into other countries, jeopardizing producers’ market and consumer acceptance.

· 真正的纪律是对错误的机会说“不”。——Peter Drucker
“The real discipline comes in saying “no” to the wrong opportunities.” – Peter Drucker

 

Dabaco北越南进口的波音747Genesus
Dabaco of North Vietnam Imports Boeing 747 Load from Genesus

 

Dabaco集团,总部在越南的北部,是一家专门以饲料、牲畜和家禽养殖和食品加工为主业的多领域集团。此外,dabaco也投资建设工业区、城市区的设施和基础设施、房地产。Dabaco骄傲地名列越南动物饲料他业的第一名,是全国十个专门从事动物饲料饲料最大的企业之一。
DABACO GROUP, based in the North of Vietnam, is multi field group of which specializes mainly on animal feed, castle and poultry breeding and food processing. In addition, Dabaco also invests in building industrial zones, urban zone facilities and infrastructure, and real estate. Dabaco is proud of being the first name in animal feed in Vietnam and being one of the ten biggest enterprises specialised in animal feed nationwide.

前身来自1996家国有企业和2005IPO,自此,Dabacohas在育种、动物饲料,承包养殖、肉制品加工的价值链开发中取得突出成就。
Formerly founded from state-owned enterprises in 1996 and an IPO in 2005,Dabacohas since made outstanding achievements in developing chain value from breeding, animal feed, contracted farming, and meat processing.

加裕公司因其与Dabaco及其工作人员长期的关系以及利用加裕种猪实现的猪肉性能的高水平而感到自豪。加裕猪因其在东南亚炎热和潮湿的气候中仍然保持其性能的能力而闻名亚洲,提高了种畜及其后代高饲料摄入量的de
Genesus is proud of its long relationship with Dabaco and its staff, as well as the high level of pig performance they achieve by using Genesus breeding stock. Genesus pigs are known for their ability to perform in the hot and humid climates of S.E. Asia, enhanced by the high feed intakes of the breeding stock and their progeny.

747章是Dabaco注册纯种Genesus约克郡,Landrace和杜洛克种猪的第四个进口商。
This 747 charter is Dabaco’s forth import of registered purebred Genesus Yorkshire, Landrace and Duroc breeding stock.

Genesus是世界上注册高健康纯种猪的最大的饲养机构。Genesus也是有专利的猪基因出口的全球领导者。
Genesus is the largest breeder of high health registered purebred swine in the world. Genesus is also the global leader in exports of proprietary swine genetics.

责任编辑:宋美丽  

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