Canadian Swine Producers got some good news this past week when the US House of Representatives voted 300 – 131 to repeal Country of Origin Labeling (COOL). This a very strong recognition that the World Trade organization finding that labeling discriminates against cattle and swine imported from Canada and Mexico, and could lead to legal retaliatory tariffs up to $3.7 billion per year instituted against US items such as wine, meat, jewelry and furniture etc.
加拿大的养猪生产者上周得到一些好消息，美国众议院以300票对131票的投票结果通过了废除原产国标签制度（Country of Origin Labeling，COOL）。这是非常明确的信号，世界贸易组织认为标签制度对来自加拿大和墨西哥的猪和牛进口造成歧视，每年可能会对美国以外的酒类、肉品、珠宝及家具等商品提出高达37亿美元的合法报复性关税。
Now the US senate has to consider the country of origin (COOL) issue.
现在美国参议院不得不考虑原产国标签的问题。
Since the implementation of COOL, Canadian swine producers have been hurt financially. Several slaughter plants in the US will not take Canadian pigs due to the COOL ramifications and the others that do take Canadian hogs, do so at a discount. The cost to the Canadian Industry according to the Canadian Government is in the billions. Since COOL implementation, the Canadian Breeding Herd has declined by over 20%. Not all the decrease is attributable to COOL cut it certainly was a major factor.
自从原产国标签制度实施以来，加拿大养猪生产者就受到经济影响。由于原产国标签制度的缘故，美国的很多屠宰厂不接收加拿大的生猪。其它一些公司虽然接收加拿大生猪，但价格有所打折。根据加拿大政府的数据，加拿大整个行业的损失达到几十亿。自从原产国标签制度实施以来，加拿大种猪群已经减少了20%以上。不能把所有的减栏都归结于原产国标签制度，但这显然是一个主要原因。
If COOL is repealed and we expect it will be, we expect more free flow pigs from Canada. The Eastern Corn Belt with the new swine plant in Michigan being built will be short hogs. We expect this will lead to market hogs from Ontario, Canada, which is short packer capacity to come to eastern states. Capacity might be a different story with most hogs staying there as long as Canadian Packers stay price competitive.
如果原产国标签制度废除（我们认为这会发生），我们认为将有更多来自加拿大的生猪流入。密歇根州的玉米带东部正在修建的新屠宰厂将会缺少生猪。我们认为这将使屠宰能力有限的加拿大安大略省的生猪进入东部各州。只要加拿大屠宰厂保持价格的竞争力，多数生猪留在那里将使屠宰能力变成另外一回事。
In our opinion COOL was not effective as a marketing plan for consumers’ confidence. It was effective in hurting Canada’s swine industry.
我们认为原产国标签制度不能有效地作为提高消费者信心的营销计划。它有效地伤害了加拿大养猪业。
China China China
中国
My Grandmother said, “Never beat a dead horse”. It seems we continue to talk about the potential for large US pork exports to China. So far, they have increased but they have not taken off. Some more news – as reported in the Genesus Global Market Report by Ron Lane.
我的祖母说，“别炒冷饭。”。似乎我们还在继续谈论美国大量出口猪肉到中国的可能性。到目前为止，数量已经出现增长但还没有真正开始。林瑞撰写的加裕全球市场报告中提到了更多的信息。
In April China’s Ministry of Agriculture reported that China’s breeding inventory declined 687,000 sows. Since the first of January, China has decreased 3.19 million sows, since February 2014 the China Sow herd has declined 11.45 million sows. It’s almost unfathomable, the liquidation levels.
中国农业部4月份的报告显示，中国的母猪存栏下降68.7万头。1 月1日以来，中国已经淘汰319万头母猪。自2014年2月以来，中国母猪存栏减少1145万头母猪。减栏的规模深不可测。
The April China swine inventory was 387 million, down 34 million from last Aprils 421 million. Using 26 weeks from birth to market for a pig, the decline year over year is equal to an average of 1.3 million less hogs per week.
中国4月份的生猪存栏为是3.87亿，比去年四月的4.21亿减少了3400万。一头猪从出生到出栏需要26周时间，同比下降的生猪头数相当于每周平均减少130万头生猪。
If China liquidated 687,000 sow in April there is no way liquidation has stopped. More are already out since then.
如果中国4月份减栏68.7万头母猪，减栏就不会停止。很多母猪从那时起已经淘汰。
Liquidation has happened because many producers have been losing money. We all know that no one quits because they are making money. Farmers are farmers everywhere in the world.
因为许多生产者一直在亏钱，减栏已经开始。我们都知道，没有人退出是因为他们能赚钱。在世界上的任何一个地方，农民就是农民。
In 2014 Genesus supplied 36% of all breeding stock imported to China from the world. When people are getting money it effects breeding stock sales. China has imported in 2015 so far only 1,000 swine breeding animals from the whole world in a market with 40 million sows. That is a reflection of how bad it has been.
在2014年，加裕在中国种猪的全球总进口量中占据36%。只要人们赚到钱，就会影响种猪销售。中国这个4000万头母猪的市场在2015年至今只进口了1000头种猪。这说明情况非常糟糕。
Chinas hog prices at the end of March was 12.09 rmb/kg or 88¢ US liveweight a lb. The week of June 2 the Chinese price had risen to 14.45 rmb/kg or $1.06 US Liveweight a lb. In 2 months, China’s market hogs have gained $45 US per head. Just as importantly, the spread between the US current price of 58¢ lb. and China’s $1.06 is over $120 USD per head. The spread is why we see upside for more pork exports to China from North America and Europe. With a $125 per head window, believe the capitalism is alive and well and pork will be moving. We believe the Chinese owners of Smithfield Foods will figure out how to ship pork at a $125 per head.
中国3月底的生猪价格为12.09人民币/kg，即88美分/磅活重。中国在6月2日这一周的价格上涨至14.45元/千克，即1.06美元/磅活重。中国的商品猪价格在2个月时间内上涨了45美元/头。同样重要的是，美国目前的价格为58美分/磅，而中国的价格为1.06美元，每头猪的差价超过120美元。这个差价是我们看到从北美和欧洲出口到中国的猪肉增加的原因。每头125美元的差价说明资本主义很好地在起作用，猪肉将会流通。我们相信史密斯菲尔德食品的中国股东在每头125 美元差价的情况下会知道怎么运输猪肉。
In our opinion the longer liquidation in China lasts, the higher prices will go and for longer. Prices have gained $45 per head in two months. In China, we expect further price increases.
我们认为，中国的减栏持续越久，价格将会上涨更高更久。每头猪的价格在两个月内上涨了45美元。我们预计中国的价格还将继续上涨。
责任编辑：宋美丽
