Last week we attended the National Pork Industry Conference (NIPC) held at the Kalahari Resort in Wisconsin Dells, Wisconsin.
上周，我们在威斯康星峡谷的卡拉哈里度假村参加了全国猪肉产业大会（National Pork Industry Conference，NPIC）。
Our Report
我们看到：
Conference as usual was well attended with over 700 attendees.
和以前一样，700多名参会者踊跃参加了会议。
The organization of the event by Century 21 group was excellent as usual. To utilize an old cliché “Trains ran on time.” Like all events, speakers varied. Depended on your perspective on how interesting you found one or another.
活动仍然得到了Century 21集团的良好组织。和其它活动一样，演讲者各不相同。这取决于你的兴趣和观点。
This year the conference suffered in our opinion from the lack of a powerful keynote speaker. A giant of the industry. In other years, CEO’s of Smithfield and Tyson spoke. Real leaders and decision makers.
在我们看来，今年的大会缺乏强有力的演讲者、一位行业巨擘。前几年，史密斯菲尔德和泰森的CEO都作过发言。他们是真正的领导者和决策者。
Generally, we would characterize the mood of the conference as positive with a degree of apprehension. Most producers just came off their most profitable year ever. They feel pretty good. The parking lot at the Kalahari had a large presence of new Cadillac Escalades, Suburbans, and option full pickups. It was a prosperous looking group justly rewarded for taking risk and capturing success.
通常，我们想说这次会议上整体气氛是积极的，带有一定程度担忧。多数生产者刚刚结束他们有史以来最赚钱的一年。他们感觉很好。卡拉哈里的停车场有大量的新凯迪拉克凯雷德（Escalades）、巨无霸（Suburban）和顶配的皮卡车。这是事业有成的人们冒险追求成功所得到的公正回报。
On the prosperity front, Joe Kerns was speaking at NPIC on grain markets. If we got it right, he said Iowa’s farmland is worth $250 billion at today’s land prices. He said 78% of Iowa’s land is debt free. Give or take $200 billion to the plus side for Iowa’s farmland owners. Talk about a group that’s bulletproof! Multiple generations of farmland, ownership has created an Ag – equity group of wealth. That’s only Iowa; imagine the wealth of the total Corn Belt! It will be over a trillion dollars. It also backstops many a hog operation when hog prices get below breakeven.
在成功面前，乔·克恩斯（Joe Kerns）在全国养猪业大会作了关于谷物市场的演讲。如果我们没弄错的话，他说，按照目前的土地价格，艾奥瓦的农田价值2500亿美元。他说78%的艾奥瓦土地都没有债务。假设艾奥瓦州的农田所有者拥有2000亿美元。这是一群刀枪不入的人们！通过几代人的农田，拥有者已经创造了农业资产的财富集团。这只是艾奥瓦州，你可以想象一下整个玉米带的总财富！这将会超过1万亿美元。这也是许多猪场在猪价低于盈亏平衡点时的坚强后盾。
Every year NPIC seems to have the topic of the month. This year it was antibiotics, other years included animal welfare issues. Not sure, what it all means but there appears to be a push to crate pork products antibiotic free. There is a market but how big?
每一年的全国养猪业大会都有一个月的主题。今年是抗生素，其他几年包含了动物福利的问题。不能确定这一切意味着什么，但似乎是在推动定位栏生产出来无抗生素的猪肉产品。市场是存在的，但有多大呢？
Earlier we observed apprehension at NPIC about the future. All know market hogs are $100 less than a year ago. Feed prices have gained over the last three weeks. There is concern about sow herd expansion and the ability of packers to handle all of the hogs. Bob Ruth spoke at NPIC on behalf of Clemens Food Group about the new plant in Michigan. 2017 target opening some with new Triumph Plant at Sioux City Iowa. We need a win. Now China desiring more pork in the coming months could be it. We have historically high beef prices and pork cut – outs 1/3 of beef. Something is not working well for pork.
早些时候，我们在全国养猪业大会观察到对未来的忧虑。大家都知道商品猪价格比去年低了100美元。饲料的价格上涨了三个星期。大家在关注母猪群的扩张和屠宰厂处理所有猪的能力。鲍勃·露丝（Bob Ruth）在全国养猪业大会代表克莱门斯食品集团（Clemens Food Group）谈到了密歇根州的新工厂。2017年目标在爱荷华州苏城与新特赖姆夫工厂（Triumph Plant）合作开一些新的工厂。我们需要一场胜利。现在中国在未来几个月可能需要更多的猪肉。我们有处于历史价格高位的牛肉和猪肉切块（1/3 的牛肉价格）。猪肉的表现不太好。
The sale of Fast Genetics to Sexing Technologies a week ago was a topic of conversation for personnel of genetic companies attending NPIC. The consensus seems to be good idea of HyLife’s Japanese major owners Itochu to sell Fast. It was a small piece of a big portfolio. They were not committing financial and/or technical development to the program to stay competitive. They were losing market share.
上周性控科技（Sexing Technologies）对骅氏育种公司（Fast Genetics）的并购是出席全国养猪业大会的育种公司人员的话题之一。似乎大家都觉得HyLife的日本股东伊藤忠出售骅氏育种公司是一个正确的行为。这在大投资组合中只是很小的一部分。他们对这一计划并没有经济或技术上的发展来保护竞争力。他们正在失去市场份额。
Why Sexing Technologies bought Fast seems to be up for debate. In the dairy business, sexed semen can fetch over $100 more per dose. No way, there is such a windfall in the swine industry. This is a cost conscious producer group. 50₵ a pig is a lot. The new CEO of Fast is the former President of PIC – USA should know the business. PIC is by far the largest swine genetic company, becoming CEO of Fast after being president of PIC is like going from Captain of the Queen Elizabeth ocean liner to Captain of the SS Minnow with Gilligan as first mate compared by the other castaways.
为什么买性控科技收购骅氏育种公司似乎有待讨论。在奶牛业，一剂性控精液可以卖到100美元以上。在养猪业中不可能有这样的意外收获。这是成本意识非常清楚的一群生产者。一头猪50美元就很多了。骅氏育种公司的新CEO是前PIC美国总裁。PIC 是目前最大的猪遗传公司，他应该知道这一行业。
Summary
总结
NPIC was well attended, and well organized. The last 18 months were the best ever for production but apprehensive about the future.
全国养猪业大会参加人数众多，组织良好。过去18个月对生产者是有史以来最好的，但对未来却是担忧。
责任编辑：宋美丽
