Iowa Pork Congress Report
艾奥瓦州猪肉大会报告
Last week we attended the Iowa Pork Congress held in Des Moines.It is the major winter pork industry show with Iowa the leading hog production state in the US.
上周，我们参加了在得梅因举行的艾奥瓦州猪肉大会。这是艾奥瓦冬季的养猪业盛会，代表美国养猪生产的先进水平。
Our observations
我们的观察
·The congress was well organized, attended and had many exhibitors.
·大会组织得很好，有很多参展商参加了展会。
·The Genesus Exhibit and Genesus Reception were both busy.
·加裕的展会和接待会都很热闹。
·Producer sentiment was positive with all expecting 2014 to be quite profitable.
·生产者们都对2014年的盈利情况充满信心。
·PED was the major topic of conversation.Many we talked to have had it.The ones that haven’t had it are worried about getting it.Huge losses of baby pigs are casting a negative scenario.
猪流行性腹泻是谈论的主要内容。很多和我们交谈的人都遇到过这一疾病。那些没有遇到过的人都担心哪天会遇上。对仔猪造成的巨大损失制造了恐怖的场景。
·All indications we have are that most, if not all of the pork powerhouses (largest producers) have been affected.The indications are that over 40% of the US sow herd has been hit.New PED breaks are still occurring, so the percentage of the US sows affected could increase significantly yet.
·我们得到的讯息是多数大型养猪公司都发生过这一疾病。各种迹象表明，美国超过40%的母猪群都发生过猪流行性腹泻。新的猪流行性腹泻爆发仍在发生，受到影响的母猪场比例还会显著增长。
·We heard an interesting observation at the congress:
·我们在大会中听到了一个有趣的情况：
o Assume 40% of the US sow herd has PED or approximately 2.5 million sows.On average 2.5 pig per sow are lost.That would total 6.25 million dead pigs.Assuming a baby pig is worth $50 each.The loss to the industry is 6.25 million X $50 = 312 million dollars!
o 假设40%美国母猪群发生过猪流行性腹泻，大约有250万头母猪发生过。平均每头母猪损失2.5头仔猪。这样计算有625万仔猪死亡。假设每头仔猪价值50美元。整个行业的亏损等于 625万 X 50美元 = 3.12亿美元！
o The next part of the scenario:The loss of 6.25 million pigs will cut US production by 5%?This would probably increase the US profit per head by $10? $20? As lower supply pushes prices higher.Assume 110 million US market hogs in 2014 at $10 per head increased profit…$1.1 billion increase?At $20 per head more profit…$2.2 billion?The point is a $312 million projected loss from PED will in all likelihood lead to increased profits for the industry.Certainly more profits for those who don’t get PED and probably more that have gotten PED.All these numbers are cowboy arithmetic, plug in your own guesses we expect you find a plus financially overall to PED.It’s somewhat insane calculating but appears to be the grim reality.
o 接下来：损失625万头猪将使美国的产量减少5%？这可能会使美国每头猪的赢利提高10美元？ 20美元？供应量下降使价格得到提升。假设2014年美国有1.1亿商品猪，每头猪的利润增加10美元，总共会增加11亿美元？如果每头猪的利润增加20美元，总共增加22亿？关键是整个行业在猪流行性腹泻中损失3.12亿美元，这将可能使行业的利润得到增加。当然那些没有发生过猪流行性腹泻的生产者可能会有更多利润。所有的这些数字都是粗略计算，我们想如果你填上自己猜测的数字就会发现猪流行性腹泻所造成的经济影响。这个计算结果有点疯狂，但现实是残酷的。
·We continue to hear of almost no new sow buildings underway.Not only does it take capital and courage, we believe a consequence of PED is that an industry in day to day crisis is not thinking expansion.We believe PED in the end will delay expansion and preserve profitability for the industry longer than we might expect in a normal hog cycle.
· 我们仍然没有听说哪里有新的母猪场正在建设。这不仅需要资本，也需要勇气。我们相信猪流行性腹泻导致行业每天都处在危机之中，无心扩张。我们相信猪流行性腹泻最终将会使行业扩张推迟，并使行业在更长的时间内保持盈利能力。这个过程要比我们预计的正常猪周期更长。
·At the Iowa Pork Congress the price of cash early weans ($85.16) and feeder pigs ($98.58) got significant discussion.Lots of finishing barns empty, chasing pigs; producers need pigs to fill contracts, feed prices have moderated, PED holes to fill, etc.More demand than supply.Unprecedented prices for small pigs.In the coming weeks we expect cash early wean prices to moderate, but stay strong.We expect cash feeder pigs to stay around current prices for the next couple months.
·在艾奥瓦州猪肉大会，很多人都在讨论早期断奶猪现货的价格（85.16美元）和生长猪的价格（98.58美元）。很多育肥舍都已经空栏，正在寻找猪源。生产者们需要有猪来完成合同，饲料价格有所缓和，而猪流行性腹泻造成的损失也要填补等等。供不应求。小猪的价格是前所未有的。我们预计未来几周，早期断奶猪现货的价格将有所缓和，但仍然保持强劲。我们预计生长猪现货在未来几个月内将保持在现有价格水平。
·The last two weeks we have been at the Minnesota Pork Congress and Iowa Pork Congress.We talked to several regular readers of this commentary.It was really nice to hear their comments that in the really tough times they got some courage to continue producing by reading this commentary.They were happy they hung in and see a proverbial light at the end of the tunnel.It was really nice to hear such comments.Thank-you.
·过去的两周，我们一直在明尼苏达猪肉大会和爱荷华州猪肉大会。我们和定期阅读养猪评论的一些读者进行了交谈。能听到他们的意见是很好的一件事。通过阅读养猪评论，他们在非常困难的时候因为而鼓足了勇气。他们很高兴坚持了下来，并看到了希望。听到这样的评论真的很高兴。谢谢你们。
Summary
结语
The industry is optimistic.PED is scaring people.Profits will be strong in 2014, probably approaching $30-40 per head.
这是一个乐观的行业。猪流行性腹泻让大家感到惊恐。 2014年将有很好的利润，每头猪的利润接近30-40美元。
2014 – Year of the Pig Farmer.
2014年，养猪年。
责任编辑：陈宠霞
