美国农业部预测2013年玉米及大豆的产量和价格

　　我们相信养猪业者已经意识到这种快速的饲料价格下跌。这会导致养猪者停止并放慢种猪群的减栏。

　　Also of note the corn futures markets last Friday were December 2013 $5.52, March 2014 $5.63 & July 2014 $5.75. Significantly higher than the $4.80 average USDA projects over the same time period. Soybeans Months on the board last Friday for the 2013 Crop Year were about $2.00 a bushel higher than the USDA projected prices. Obviously the market has not let go of the chances of another drought.

　　同时值得指出的是，上周五的玉米期货市场是2013年十二月为$5.52、2014年三月为$5.63及2014年七月为$5.75。这明显高于美国农业部预测的平均$4.80同期价格。上周五的2013年大豆每蒲式耳高出美国农业部预计价格$2.00美元。显然市场没有忽视再次干旱的可能。

　　The US has had five droughts in the last 42 years. None were back to back years. Despite the talk of climate change it was 23 years since the previous drought. We remember a few years ago being at a testimonial dinner for Mac Cuddy who built from scratch a company that produced 25% of all turkey poults in the world with 3,000 employees. His message “You go broke betting on droughts ” One drought in 23 years – not good odds.

　　美国在过去的42年间出现过5次干旱。在过去的几年间并没有再次干旱。尽管谈论到气候变化，距离上一次干旱已经过去23年了。我们想起几年前参加Mac Cuddy的一个见证宴会，他白手起家成立了一家火鸡公司，公司生产全世界25%的火鸡并拥有3,000名员工。他说“永远不要在干旱问题上押注”。23年才一个，机率不大。

　　Trade Issues

　　贸易问题

　　The slide in hog prices in Russia down from $3.00 a kilo to $2.00 a kilo and Iowa prices in China seem to be increasing the concern of both countries about the usage of Ractpamine (Paylean) in imported pork and meat. The reality of the increased inability and or difficulty to export to both countries from USA – Canada is a serious issue for hog producers. Lower market accessibility will limit exports and lower hog prices in USA-Canada while supporting hog prices in China – Russia. We expect that continual hog prices in China – Russia. We expect that continual pressure will lead to less Paylean being used. Smithfield Foods Americas largest hog producers and packer has recently said that they have the ability to verify Paylean free pork through their production food chain, to meet market conditions. 40% of US supply-demand Pork goes to Russia – China, 4% in an inelastic commodity market can significantly affect hog prices. This is a serious issue especially if other countries grab onto this as a trade barrier to support their domestic producers? USA-Canada has the most efficient low cost pork industry in the world, with massive levels of pork to export. This intimidates higher cost and less efficient countries and their pork producers. Trade issues ensue.

　　俄罗斯的猪价出现从$3.00/公斤至$2.00/公斤的下跌，而艾奥瓦对中国猪价也出现下跌。这可能是由于这两个国家加强对进口猪肉及肉品中使用莱克多巴胺（培林）使用的关注。从美国-加拿大出口到这两个国家的困难增加，这对养猪业者而言是现实的严重问题。更少的市场准入将会美国-加拿大的出口并压低猪价并抬高中国-俄罗斯的猪价。我们预计中国-俄罗斯的猪价将得以保持。我们预计持续的压力将导致培林的使用减少。美国最大的生猪饲养企业及屠宰厂史密斯菲尔德最近称，他们有能力通过全产业链保证无培林猪肉，以迎合市场需要。在美国的供需猪肉中有40%流向俄罗斯-中国，非弹性商品市场中4%可以明显影响生猪价格。如果其它国家将这作为贸易壁垒以支持国内生产者，这将是个严重的问题。美国-加拿大有着全球最高效的低成本的养猪业，有大量猪肉用于出口。这威胁到高成本低效率的国家以及他们的养猪业者。随之而来的就是贸易问题。

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