美国农业部预测2013年玉米及大豆的产量和价格

　　Cattle on Feed

　　肥育牛

　　The USDA cattle on Feed Report for February 1st shows 6% fewer cattle on Feed than a year ago.

　　美国农业部2月1日的肥育牛报告表明肥育牛数量比一年前减少了6%。

　　About 750,000 fewer cattle on feed. Less Beef coming is supportive to hog prices. Beef can’t eat what’s not there!

　　大约减少了750,000头肥育牛。牛肉产量减少有助于猪肉价格。在没有牛肉的情况下是吃不到牛肉的。

　　Hog Numbers

　　生猪数量

　　Liquidation of the sow herd started last July. There is no doubt in July-August the sow herd got smaller. We expected not to see significant year over year declines in hog numbers before April. This past week though US weekly hog market numbers were 60,000 lower than the same week a year ago. Due to packer’s margins being weak? Packers backing off? Hogs not there?

　　母猪群的减栏源于去年7月。无疑7月-8月的母猪群减少。我们预期4月前猪群数量不会出现明显的同比下降。上周美国每周的上市猪数量比去年同一周同比下降60,000头。这是屠宰厂利润少引起的吗？或是屠宰厂规模减少？还是没有猪源？

　　Year to Date (February 9, 2013) Canadian feeder pig exports to USA were down almost 10% (60,000 fewer). The Canada Hog slaughter year to date (February 16, 2013) is (85,000) Add hog marketing’s and feeder pig exports it appears Canada’s total pig supply is declining.

　　今年截至目前（2013年2月9日），出口到美国的加拿大生长猪下跌了约10%（减少60,000）。今年截至目前（2013年2月16日）的加拿大生猪屠宰数量为85,000。将商品猪及生长猪出口情况进行合计，显然加拿大的猪总供应量正在下滑。

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