俄罗斯报告

　　Russia Report

　　俄罗斯报告

　　Last week we spent in Russia, the following is our report:

　　我们上周在俄罗斯，以下是我们的报告：

　　We attended and exhibited Genesus at VIV Moscow, a poultry and swine exhibit held every two years at the Crocus Convention Center on the outskirts of Moscow.

　　我们在莫斯科参加VIV并代表加裕参展，这个畜禽业的展会每两年在莫斯科郊区的藏红花会议中心举办。

　　VIV is mostly a poultry show as it takes the big hitters from that industry to pay the big cost of exhibit space. A few square feet of space not quite the cost of an acre of Iowa farmland, but getting close.

　　VIV主要是家禽展，展会从养禽业获得大量利润以支付展览馆的巨大开支。几平方英尺的空间与1亩爱荷华州的农田成本不同，但越来越接近。

　　Moscow is expensive, hotels, transportation, restaurants and housing make you wonder how well ordinary people can live in such a costly environment. On the flip side, Moscow continues to grow, construction towers are everywhere. Apartments and Commercial complexes and such are going up at a rapid rate. Moscow is the shiny magnet drawing people from all over Russia to what they hope is a better life. New York, London and Moscow have the most billionaires in the world. Conspicuous consumption is a very evident in Moscow.

　　莫斯科的生活成本很高，这里的酒店、交通、餐饮和住房会使你好奇这里的普通民众如何在这样一个高成本的环境下生存。在另一面，莫斯科仍在继续发展，高楼大厦随处可见。住宅和商业综合体等正以极快的速度进行发展。莫斯科是一个大磁铁，将全俄罗斯想要更好生活的人吸引在一起。纽约、伦敦和莫斯科拥有世界上最多的亿万富翁。在莫斯科，炫富消费非常明显。

　　Russia’s economy is fueled by huge production and exports of oil and natural gas. Approximately half of Russia’s federal budget is financed by such revenues and royalties.

　　俄罗斯的经济由大型石油和天然气的生产和出口带动。俄罗斯联邦预算资金大约有一半来自这些收入和特许权使用费。

　　The Russia swine industry has recently gone through what was thought of as tough times with the price dropping below the cost of production for many producers. It was very shocking for producers as they had previously had a long period of time of profits of around $100 per head.

　　最近，俄罗斯养猪业经历了他们认为艰难的时刻，生猪价格低于许多养殖者的生产成本。这对养殖者影响很大，他们曾经有很长一段时间每头猪有100元左右的利润。

　　Most of us who have been in the swine for any length of time have seen swine are a commodity with industry price and cost cycles. The Russian industry has had recently a new experience of a more open market with entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO). Previously Russia swine market had been protected by tariffs and import quotas.

　　我们中的大多数人已经从事养猪业一段时间，知道猪是一种行业价格和成本存在周期性的商品。俄罗斯进入世界贸易组织（WTO）后，行业最近面临一个更加开放的市场。此前俄罗斯的生猪市场受到了关税和进口配额的保护。

　　Current Russian swine prices are approximately 74 rubles a Kilogram give or take $1.07 US liveweight a lb. Break evens are about 58 Rubles or 90¢ liveweight a lb. Feed is about the same cost as the US. The difference is generally lower productivity and/or higher overhead of very expensive facilities (give or take $10,000 a sow farrow to finish) with credit being expensive (14-16%) except with some special farm loans.

　　当前俄罗斯的生猪价格大约每公斤74卢布，或$1.07美元/磅活重。盈亏平衡点为58卢布左右或90美分/磅活重。饲料成本与美国基本相同。差别是普通的低生产力、设施昂贵（分娩育肥场约需要$10,000/母猪）以及多数猪场的贷款费用高（14-16%）所导致的高经常费用。

　　A person very familiar with the Russian market tells us there are about one million sows in newer more modern facilities, about 750,000 sows in old Soviet style barns and about 600,000 sows in backyards. Most of the old style Soviet barns and many backyard facilities will disappear over the next ten years to modernize the business. Russia is and will be looking for the most modern swine technology as its industry modernizes.

　　一位了解俄罗斯市场的人告诉我们，大约100万头母猪在新建的现代化设施饲养、大约有750,000头在旧苏联风格的猪舍饲养和大约600,000头母猪在后院养猪。多数旧苏联式猪舍和很多后院式养猪户将在接下来的十年中消失，走向现代化的模式。随着行业的现代化，俄罗斯将寻找最现代化的养猪技术。

　　Russia has about 145 million people. They are a meat eating culture. Per capita consumption of pork is about 23 kilograms; if incomes continue to rise it is not inconceivable Russia per capita pork consumption could reach European levels of 45-50 kilograms. That would mean up to the equivalent of about 40 million more hogs a year pork demand would be needed by either domestic productions and or Pork Imports. This is not inconceivable over the next decade.

　　俄罗斯拥有约1.45亿人口。他们有肉食文化。人均猪肉消费量为23千克左右，如果收入继续上升，俄罗斯人均猪肉消费量可能难以想象地达到45-50公斤的欧洲水平。这将意味着每年的猪肉需求将增加最多约40多万头生猪，包括国内生产或进口猪肉。在未来十年内，这并非天方夜谭。

　　Talking to building and equipment people at VIV, the recent market downturn has scared potential investors from the scene. Expansion has slowed. A dedicated pork producer told us the lower market was a blessing it will sort out the “quick buck” people who thought producing hogs was easy and profitable. Certainly in our opinion there seems to be a new awareness in costs and productivity. The WTO agreement has put the Russian Industry on notice that Global pricing and supply are now part of the equation.

　　我们在VIV与建筑和设备厂家商谈时发现，最近的市场下滑吓退了背后的潜在投资者。扩张速度有所放缓。一个专注的猪肉生产商告诉我们，市场低迷是一件好事，会把“急功近利”的人淘汰出局，这些人认为养猪非常容易且有利可图。当然在我们看来，这是对成本和生产效率的新认识。“WTO协定”已经让俄罗斯的行业认识到，全球定价和供应方式已经成为方程式的一部分。

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