最新全球生猪价格

Global Hog Price Update

最新全球生猪价格

　　The US exports about 25% of its pork production and Canada 50%.Both countries have significant price dependence from Global Pork Export demand.We always believe hog prices in each significant importing country is a barometer of where USA-Canada exports are trending and we use these as an indicator of how we feel the USA-Canada hog prices will be moving.

　　美国猪肉生产总量的25%用于出口，而加拿大出口50%。这两个国家的价格都严重依赖于全球猪肉出口需求。我们一直相信美国-加拿大出口猪肉的各主要进口国的生猪价格是整个趋势的晴雨表，我们使用来判断美国和加拿大的生猪价格走向。

　　Our most recent snap shot tells us on a US dollar and liveweight by the pound that all countries currently have higher prices that both Canada and USA.

　　我们最近看到，目前所有国家的生猪价格转化成美元后都高于加拿大和美国的水平。

　　It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that 60¢/lb. in the USA is significantly lower that anywhere but Canada.The higher prices, in each of the other countries is an obvious reflection of supply and demand.Also their consumers are paying significantly more for pork than US-Canada consumers.Consumer will and are paying for Pork at high prices!

　　不需要太尖端的科学家都会看到美国的60美分/磅低于加拿大以外的任何一个地方。所有其它国家的高价是对供求关系的明显反映。他们的消费者明显比美国和加拿大消费者支付了更多钱来购买猪肉。消费者愿意并为猪肉付出高价！

　　China for example:Market hogs are bringing at least $100 more per head than USA.It's obvious that pork brought and sent from USA would be competitively priced.Any enterprising capitalist will be figuring on capturing the spread.Ditto Russia & Mexico, both are major pork importing countries.

　　以中国为例：每头商品猪至少比美国可以多卖100美元。显然来自美国的猪肉在价格上更有优势。任何一个企业家都懂得计算这一数字。上面提到的俄罗斯和墨西哥都是主要的猪肉进口国。同上俄罗斯和墨西哥，这两个是主要的猪肉进口国。

　　Brazil is a major exporter of Pork.Their price at 72¢ versus 60¢ (USA) is higher.Brazil does not have cheaper pork to export.We expect as we get through January the USA hog price will rapidly rise to Brazil's price.

　　巴西是主要的猪肉出口国。他们的价格是72美分，比美国的60美分高。巴西的猪肉出口价格并没有更低。我们预期，美国整个一月份的生猪价格将快速达到巴西的水平。

　　Bottom-line:We expect as we look at the hog prices in Major importing countries that USA-Canada exports will stay strong in 2014.This will support the price of hogs in USA-Canada.

　　总结：我们预计美国和加拿大出口到那些主要的猪肉进口国的价格在2014年将保持强劲。这将有助于支撑美国和加拿大的生猪价格。

　　PED

　　猪流行性腹泻

　　Last Saturday the Wall Street Journal did a feature on PED.Of course few of us read the Wall Street Journal, as it is for the gentrified of the East Coast (We got an article sent to us).What the article talked about is PED will mean fewer pigs and pork, which will probably lead to record retail pork prices this coming summer.Couple that with record beef prices, the American consumer will almost pay as much for Pork as the people of Russia, China, Mexico, Japan, etc. do now.Of course the GDP per capita in the United States which should mean more consumers buying power is significantly higher that where people are buying pork in markets at $1.00 US b. liveweight now.

　　上周六，华尔街日报做了猪流行性腹泻的专题报道。当然我们中很少人读了华尔街日报，这是给东海岸那些中产阶级读的报纸（别人发给我们这篇文章）。文章提到猪流行性腹泻将意味着生猪和猪肉数量的减少，这可能会导致这个夏天猪肉零售价格达到破纪录的水平。加上破纪录的牛肉价格，美国消费者将付出和俄罗斯、中国、墨西哥、日本等国家目前相同的价格来购买猪肉。当然，美国的人均国民生产总值意味着比目前以每磅1美元价格购买猪肉的那些人们有着更高的消费者购买力。

　　PED continues to move with over 2,000 officially reported cases.We expect that many are not reported, there is no mandatory reporting and when all your baby pigs are dying, you don't need to have a lab tell you why.WE expect that when the dust settles on PED the US will have lost at least 5 million pigs from PED (mid 2013-2014).Currently Canada has seen no PED cases.We believe the 5 million fewer hogs will have added $10-20 of value on a market hog. (This includes the extra carcass weight of current hogs)

　　猪流行性腹泻还在持续中，已经有超过2,000例官方报告病例。我们认为有很多都没有报告。并没有强制进行报告。如果你的小猪死亡，你不需要让实验室告诉你为什么。我们预计当猪流行性腹泻结束时，美国将因为猪流行性腹泻损失至少5百万头猪（2013年中至2014年）。目前，加拿大并没有猪流行性腹泻的病例。我们相信，5百万头猪的减少将使商品猪的价值提高10-20美元。（这包括当然生猪胴体的超重部分）

　　Minnesota and Iowa Pork Congress

　　明尼苏达州和艾奥瓦州猪肉大会

　　We will be at the Genesus Exhibits at Minnesota this week and Iowa next.We look forward to you visiting and giving your opinion on our industry.Genesus is also having a reception on the Wednesday of the Iowa Pork Congress, please come, visit and have a drink on us.

　　本周，我们会在明尼苏达州的加裕展位。下周到艾奥瓦州。我们期待您的来访，并提供您对行业的看法。同时，加裕在周三的艾奥瓦州猪肉大会设有接待，请前来和我们喝两杯。

　　Canadian Dollar

　　加拿大元

　　The Canadian Dollar a year ago was worth more that the US dollar ($1.01).Last Friday it closed at 91.75¢ to the US Dollar.Canada's hog industry was not competitive with the US at a par dollar.The drop in US Dollar is a very positive win for Canadian hog producers.With Canada's hog price tied to the US hog price, Canada exports 50% of its pork production (priced US dollars), labour cost, electricity, taxes etc. stay in Canadian but the hog price moves higher.For example a load of feeder pigs sold for $92.00 US per pig, when converted into Canadian dollars is $100 per pig, $8.00 more.Many expect the Canadian dollar will continue to decline relative to the US dollar.We believe 85¢ is where it will go.A much needed win for Canadian hog producers.

　　加拿大元在一年前比美元更值钱（$1.01美元）。上周五，加元对美元收盘于91.75美分。加元和美元等值的情况下，加拿大养猪业是没有竞争力的。汇率下跌对加拿大的养猪者来说是个正面的信号。由于加拿大的生猪价格和美国捆绑在一起，加拿大50%的猪肉用于出口（以美元标价）。劳务成本、水电、税收都是加拿大的水平，而猪价却更高。例如出售一批生长猪，每头猪的价格是92美元，转换成加元就是100加元，多了8块钱。很多人预计加元对美元还将继续贬值。我们认为会达到85美分。加拿大养猪人必胜。

责任编辑：陈宠霞